Brazil increased iron ore exports by 10% y/y in June

Brazil increased iron ore exports by 10% year-on-year in June 2025, to 36.3 million tons, according to BigMint, citing customs data.

Compared to the previous month, this figure increased by 3.4%.

Average export prices for this raw material in June 2025 fell to $63.7/t FOB compared to $76.5/t in the same month last year. This reflects the downward trend in global iron ore prices.

Overall, Brazil increased its exports by 1.4% year-on-year – to $29.14 billion in June. Imports rose by 3.8% year-on-year to $23.3 billion. The country’s monthly surplus fell by almost 7% year-on-year – to $5.89 billion.

It should be recalled that at the end of June, there was a short-term revival in the iron ore market, but further price growth is limited by structural factors. Despite futures on the Dalian Exchange reaching values of almost $100/t, the spot segment remained weak, and traders did not show confidence in a sustained recovery in demand.

One of the key drivers of the change in sentiment was the maintenance of relatively high pig iron production volumes in China. This supported the market in the second half of June, even amid the traditional summer decline in demand.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Moody’s expects iron ore prices to remain at $80-100/t in the next 12-18 months. This forecast is due to weak demand from China and high supply in the global market.

A similar view was expressed by BMI Country Risk and Industry Research. They maintain their forecast for the average annual price for 2025 at $100/t, although they acknowledge the pressure from weak demand.