BMI expects iron ore prices to fall to $95/t in 2026

Analysts at research agency BMI predict that average iron ore prices will be $95/t in 2026, according to Kallanish.

The forecast is driven by additional supply from the Simandou project in Guinea and persistently weak domestic demand in China.

In the long term, BMI expects a multi-year downward trend in iron ore prices, which will fall to $78/t by 2034.

Ore prices in China are currently supported by low short-term inventories, but the company’s analysts expect changes in the coming months. The weakness of the country’s construction sector will continue to disappoint the market amid the lack of significant stimulus for heavy industry. Production will be pressured by environmental regulations and weak domestic demand, reducing the need to purchase raw materials.

However, BMI does not predict a collapse in prices, as easing trade tensions, which will continue to support Chinese steel exports, and a still-resilient global economy will keep them in check.

On the supply side, BMI says iron ore production remains healthy for major mining companies, with output and shipments generally holding up despite weather-related problems earlier in the year.

The research company also expects global attention to low-carbon steel to increase.

BMI has maintained its forecast for coking coal prices in 2025 at $182/t. In the near term, they will be affected by a reduction in steel production in China.