Australia expects iron ore prices to fall in 2024 to $96/t

The Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources predicts that iron ore prices will drop to $96/ton in 2024. At the same time, in 2025 they will fall to $84/t, and in 2026 – to $77/t. It is reported by SteelOrbis with reference to the quarterly report of the department.

Australia’s iron ore export revenue for the 2024-2025 financial year is expected to decrease to A $114 billion, compared to $138 billion in the 2023-2024 financial year. In 2025-2026, this figure will be $102 billion.

The preliminary report predicted that revenues from exports of iron ore in 2024-2025 will be at the level of $107 billion. The forecast was revised as a result of the restoration of stocks and improving market sentiment, given the strengthening of China’s fundamental indicators.

Note that iron ore prices in June fell by $7-10/t. On the Dalian Exchange, as of June 28, they were 819 yuan/ton ($112.7/ton), and the Singapore Exchange – $105.65/ton. The negative dynamics is associated with weakening demand for steel and an increase in port ore reserves in China. Currently, the most negative factor for the market is the excess supply of iron ore, which is not absorbed by existing demand in China. In the short term, prices are expected to be predominantly stable.

The British international commercial bank HSBC Holdings expects iron ore prices to be at $100/t in 2024. The world market remains tense despite the real estate crisis in China, which worsens the prospects for steel demand in the country, the bank said.

Capital Economics predicts that ore quotes will vary at the level of $99-100/t. In the second quarter and fourth quarter, prices will be at $100/ton, and in the third – $99/ton. At the end of next year, prices for air defense will fall to $85/t. Among the key reasons for the negative outlook is the expectation of weak global demand for steel.