Iron ore price to exceed $100/t in 2024 – HSBC

The global maritime market will remain in deficit in 2024-2025

The price of iron ore will exceed $100 per ton on average this year. This is the forecast of the British international commercial bank HSBC Holdings, Bloomberg reports.

According to HSBC, the global market remains tense despite the real estate crisis in China, which worsens the outlook for steel demand in the country.

The financial institution’s analysts note that the global maritime iron ore market will remain in short supply in 2024-2025, and that rising steel production outside of China, especially in India, will boost consumption of this raw material.

In the first quarter of 2024, iron ore prices fell by almost a third on concerns about weakening Chinese demand, with prices falling below $100/t before partially recovering in April. The Chinese authorities are making efforts to revive the national real estate market, which is an important driver of steel demand. Reflecting these challenges, the industry’s steel association is calling on its members to cut production.

«We expect steel demand growth to be muted in the next five years, growing at about 2% as mainland China cuts back. However, we see India stepping up and recording the world’s fastest steel consumption growth rate,» said Howard Lau, HSBC analyst.

According to him, HSBC experts do not expect a significant increase in iron ore production by major producers. At the same time, the demand for this raw material will remain stable.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Asian iron ore markets are preparing for an uncertain second quarter. In March, spot prices for seaborne raw materials fell to an 11-month low, and their recovery depends on the growth of construction activity in China and demand for replenishment of stocks. In addition, market participants are concerned that ore prices will continue to decline throughout the year if steel prices fail to rise in April-June.