Asian steel market to remain under pressure in Q4 – S&P Global

Asian flat and long steel markets will see weak demand in the fourth quarter, with export volumes likely to decline after a strong start to the year. This is the forecast from S&P Global.

Domestic demand in China is expected to weaken in winter due to the seasonal slowdown in construction and weather conditions. Therefore, sources in this market suggest that exports will remain a key factor in easing pressure on inventories.

At the same time, China’s efforts to restructure the steel industry through consolidation and curbing excessive competition have had limited impact.

Many market participants expect that high steel production in the country, where mills are ramping up production in the last months of the year amid good profitability, combined with low demand due to geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown, will limit further growth in supply.

S&P Global estimates that China’s steel exports will remain at around 110 million tons for the year.

The Asian hot-rolled coil market will face continued negative effects in the fourth quarter—the current wave of protectionist measures, especially in Southeast Asia, will be broader than in 2015, traders believe. According to Chinese market participants, this pressure has prompted major mills to reduce their offers.

At the same time, India introduced a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports in April and proposed anti-dumping measures on Vietnamese hot-rolled steel. In April-September, this led to a 29.4% year-on-year decline in steel imports into the country.

Asian prices for ferrous scrap in the fourth quarter are also likely to remain under pressure amid weak demand after a prolonged decline in the third quarter, with only a brief recovery observed in July-August.

It should be noted that Chinese steel companies increased steel exports by 6.6% in January-October 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, to 97.74 million tons.