Asian coking coal prices stabilize amid rising demand

Asian coking coal prices have been stabilizing over the past two weeks amid rising demand.

According to Kallanish, the price of high-quality coking coal FOB Australia on October 17 amounted to $194.5/t, having been fixed at this level since last week ($194.4/t as of October 10).

Spot coking coal quotations in China (EXW, Anze) as of October 17 amounted to $217.5/t (+1.6% y-o-y).

In early October, the seaborne coking coal market was calm amid the «golden week» in China (October 1-8) and the Gandhi-Jayanti national holiday in India (October 2). Subsequently, prices began to rise due to a pickup in demand.

After the holidays, domestic coking coal prices in China have shown a stable upward trend amid a recovery in market sentiment, which is likely to continue. In particular, last week (October 13-17), the market was pushed up by concerns about supply stability in November due to the announced safety inspections of mines in Chinese provinces.

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in September, the country increased imports of coking coal by 7.5% m.m. and 5.4% year-on-year to 10.9 million tons.

The value of these imports, according to Mysteel Global, increased by 18.9% month-on-month to $1.04 billion, with an average price of $95.4/t (+10.6% compared to the average in August). However, it was 34.9% lower than in September 2024.

In 9 months, China imported about 83.6 mln tonnes of the product (-6% y/y).

The Indian coking coal market was mostly stable last week (October 13-17), with limited buying activity ahead of the Diwali holiday period. Several bids for Australian cargoes were reported during the period. The BigMint Premium Hard Coking Coal (PHCC) Index on October 17 was $206/mt CNF Paradip, India, which is only $1/mt more than the previous one on October 10.

Traders expect demand to improve in the fourth quarter due to restocking in India and China.

As a reminder, analysts at BMI have maintained their forecast for coking coal prices in 2025 at $182/t. Although coking coal prices rose to almost $200/t in August and September this year due to restocking, they are expected to decline to $175-185/t by the end of the year.