The global rebar market remained weak in May amid low demand

The global rebar market remained volatile in May 2025. Most regions faced weak demand, a seasonal slowdown in construction and pressure on prices. Only China and Turkey showed a slight increase, but the overall dynamics remained restrained.

Turkey

The Turkish rebar market showed limited growth in May amid weak demand and high production costs. Prices rose by 2.4% to $550.6/t FOB as of May 30, but the rate of increase slowed significantly in the second half of the month. In the last week of May, the growth was only 0.2%, and the total supply since the beginning of the year fell by 2.2%.

The main factor behind the price increase was more expensive inputs, such as scrap and billets, as well as temporary shutdowns of some plants. Kardemir raised domestic prices several times and attracted buyers by deferring payment, but on May 28, the company was able to sell only 12,000 tons of products, three times less than two weeks ago.

On the export side, Turkish producers faced sluggish demand. After a brief revival in April, European buyers abandoned active purchases, saturating warehouses with stocks for July quotas. In Arab countries, particularly in Yemen and Palestine, demand declined due to political instability and logistical constraints. On the other hand, large shipments to Syria and stable volumes in Northern Cyprus were an unexpected positive signal.

The domestic market remained weak, with high interest rates and financial difficulties forcing traders to cut back on purchases and sell off stocks ahead of the Eid al-Adha holiday.

In June, prices may experience a slight downward correction amid the exhaustion of supporting factors and expected low activity during the holidays. However, no significant collapses are expected due to limited supply and expensive resources.

EU

The rebar market in the EU was under pressure from weak activity in the construction sector and falling scrap prices, which led to a decline in prices in most regions. The most noticeable decline was in Italy: as of May 30, prices fell by 8% over the month to €550.6/t ex-works. The reasons for this were a general dampening of demand, especially in residential construction, and intense competition among producers who resumed full production activity after the April shutdown.

Despite some expectations of a price increase at the end of the month, due to cheaper scrap, the overall trend remained negative. Market participants reported discounts needed to secure large contracts, indicating oversupply and weak buying activity.

In Northern Europe, prices declined less significantly, by 0.8% to €650/t ex-works as of May 23. This is the first decline after a long period of stability. At the same time, prices are still 3.2% higher than at the beginning of the year, partly due to a shortage in the German market due to the suspension of production at Riva Hennigsdorf. This situation allowed other German producers, such as Badische Stahlwerke and Feralpi Riesa, to maintain relatively high prices, up to €695/t based on size.

The French market remained stable, but with increasing pressure on margins. Cheaper supply from Italy and Spain created competition, especially in the southern regions, which limited the room for domestic price increases.

In June, a short-term upward adjustment in prices is likely if scrap prices rise. However, weak seasonal demand, the pre-holiday pause, and reduced activity in the housing sector may limit growth. The focus remains on infrastructure projects, which partially support demand.

USA

In May, rebar prices in the US decreased by 1.9% to $765/ton, breaking two months of stability. Although prices remained 7.7% higher than at the beginning of the year, the market is showing signs of weakness amid declining demand, fluctuations in the scrap market, excess inventories and uncertainty over tariffs.

The key pressure on the market came from weak construction activity. The AIA report indicated a sixth consecutive month of declines in the architectural design index, and data from the Dodge Construction Network confirmed a drop in construction starts. This leads to buyer caution and low activity, even in the traditionally busy spring season.

At the same time, the scrap market fell by $20-50/t in May, and the outlook for June remains weak. As a result, many steel mills have reduced their scrap purchases by up to 50% in an effort to maintain margins. The market is also expecting an increase in supply from the new Hybar plant in Arkansas, which will put additional pressure on prices.

Imports have also been affected: new tariffs on shipments from Mexico and Canada have limited new contracts, and inventories in ports, particularly in Houston, remain high, but shipments have declined by 30-40%.

In June, prices are likely to decline further moderately due to weak demand, slow construction, and rising domestic supply. Macroeconomic uncertainty and expectations of lower interest rates will remain a key factor.

China

The Chinese rebar market showed moderate dynamics during the month. After three months of stagnation, prices rose by 0.2% to $423.3/t FOT. However, year-on-year, they remain 5.3% lower, reflecting the challenging market environment.

The first weeks of the month were marked by a decline: after the holidays, there was a drop in demand caused by seasonal weakness, rains in the southern regions and the end of the pre-purchase period. Supply was on the rise: some companies resumed production after stoppages, and most mills shifted to rebar production, which led to an increase in inventories and pressure on prices.

By mid-May, sentiment temporarily improved amid unexpectedly positive news from the US-China trade talks. This contributed to a short-term increase in quotations, but rapid supply growth and limited demand restrained further market strengthening.

At the end of the month, the market weakened again. Despite a slight reduction in inventories, trading activity declined. Producers in eastern China maintained prices, but were forced to offer subsidies to traders to compensate for losses, indicating a difficult sales situation.

In June, further pressure on prices is expected due to the traditional seasonal drop in demand during the rainy season, continued high production volumes, and unstable export prospects. Further dynamics will depend on the success of the next round of tariff negotiations and possible incentives from the government.