Post-war recovery will support steel consumption in Ukraine

Before the war, Ukraine exported approximately 80% of semi-finished and finished rolled metal products produced. However, as part of the post-war reconstruction of destroyed real estate and infrastructure, a significant part of production may be directed to domestic consumption. But, due to the loss of metallurgical capacity, the need for imports will still remain significant, especially for flat and shaped rolled products.

The situation with steel imports

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the domestic steel market has been under a severe blow. Due to the loss of the Mariupol steel mills, Ukraine lost 40% of its steelmaking capacity. This led to shortages and the need to import a fairly wide range of steel products.

“After the outbreak of full-scale war in 2022, Vartis, like other market players, focused its efforts on securing critical positions of rolled steel products, the production of which was stopped due to the loss of Mariupol plants. First of all, we are talking about 8-50 mm thick hot-rolled plates, I-beams and rails. These positions are imported even today. In addition, we observe a stable demand for long and shaped rolled metal products – channel, angle, strip, square. In most cases of imports these are products of Turkish manufacture, which are actively used in construction, metalworking and in the manufacture of metal structures,” Sergiy Kovalenko, Commercial Director of Vartis, told GMK Center.

The deficit of steel products was eliminated within six months – until the fall of 2022. The deficit of steel products in 2022 was not painful: stock balances and quick reorganization of logistics, as well as reduced demand helped. In addition, consumers in the western regions have always had access to imported metal with a short logistical shoulder.

Also, according to Sergiy Kovalenko, starting from 2023, imports of profile and electric-welded pipes have increased significantly. The reasons are twofold: firstly, in certain periods the import price was more competitive than the Ukrainian one. Secondly, some products, such as S355 steel pipes, especially in large cross-sections, are either not produced in Ukraine at all or are available in limited quantities.

The need for imports arises for other reasons as well. According to Igor Udovichenko, marketing and sales director of TACT Metal, Ukrainian manufacturers may be focused on the production of metal products with high added value, so the production of low-margin types of steel is not carried out, and they have to be imported.

In addition, Ukrainian producers are experiencing a shortage of workers due to mobilization and booking difficulties and are dependent on electricity supply. Therefore, they do not always produce the entire range of products, and consumers have to cover this with imports.

Now the situation has stabilized, there is no shortage of steel products on the Ukrainian market for a long time, but the volume of imports remains very significant.

According to OP Ukrmetprom, last year imports of rolled metal products increased by 10.2% y/y – to 1.24 million tons. The specific weight of imports in the structure of metal consumption in Ukraine by the end of 2024 increased by 5.6 p.p. to 37.6% – to 37.6%, although it is lower than 39% in 2022, when there was a peak of imports, but much less than 22.6% in pre-war 2021.

Ukraine is currently fully dependent on imports of thick plate and rails, as there is no own capacity (after the occupation of Mariupol), and to a lesser extent on external supplies of shaped products, as well as galvanized and dyed coil. At the same time, the importance of imports of painted rolled products is decreasing due to the significant growth of domestic production.

“Now Ukraine produces a limited number of products, in particular beams, channels and thick plate,” notes Dmytro Nikolaenko, commercial director of Metinvest.

New products

Since the beginning of the war, Ukrainian metal enterprises have been constantly adapting and setting up production of new products – both to compensate for the production of metal products and to expand export opportunities and find new product niches in the global market.

In 2022-2024, Metinvest mastered production of 24, 25 and 20 new types of products, respectively. Their output at individual enterprises of the group is as follows:

• Zaporizhstal – cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel in sheets, including thicknesses from 8 mm to 120 mm, and coils, which are used for subsequent galvanizing. It also produces slabs of S235, S275 and S355 steel grades for the needs of its rolling mills in Italy and the UK, where they are used to produce thick plate and coils.
• Kametstal – long products (rebar of a new strength class, wire rod, round with diameter from 7.5 to 42 mm, grinding balls) and shapes (mine racks). These types of steel products are intended for construction, machine building and hardware production. Kametstal also started to produce several new types of square and rectangular billets.
• Unisteel is a new galvanized rolled products for the construction industry.

In turn, in 2022-2024, Interpipe mastered more than 200 new types of pipe products and dozens of new sizes of wheels and axles for different segments of European machine building – production of railway equipment, automotive industry.

Despite this, after the war is over, Ukraine has all chances to become a net importer of steel products in some positions. This primarily concerns flat rolled products, including galvanized and painted. At the same time, Ukraine’s needs in long products are not so great now. Besides, our enterprises have sufficient reserves to increase the output of long products.

Protection of the domestic market

Increase in import of steel products to Ukraine forces to protect the domestic market. Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine introduced anti-dumping measures in September 2023 – against rebar and wire rod from Belarus and Chinese coated rolled products. These anti-dumping investigations started before the war.

In April 2025, the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade initiated an anti-dumping investigation against imports of coated rolled products from Malaysia to Ukraine. The reason was suspicion that these imports are used to circumvent the previously established duty on similar products of Chinese origin.

If necessary, Ukraine can impose bans against any products. According to Article XXI of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), a particular state can impose trade restrictions for reasons of national security in conditions of war or other force majeure. However, during the 3 years of war, this option was never utilized.

To assess imports, it is necessary to understand what Ukrainian metallurgical plants produce:

• Zaporizhstal – hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil and sheet, slabs.
• Kametstal – rebar, wire rod, long products, square billets, mine stands, grinding balls.
• ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih – rebar, wire rod, long and shaped products, billets.
• Interpipe – pipes, railroad wheels.
• DMZ – square billets, shapes, rails (for subway, streetcar and cranes).

The most obvious candidates for imposing trade bans on steel are Russia and Belarus. However, direct trade with Russia has not been actually conducted since the beginning of the war – the Cabinet of Ministers has banned it. There is no direct ban for Belarus, but trade volumes have been reduced to a minimum.

The weakness of Ukrainian trade policy is its selectivity due to the nature of the relationship. Their output at individual enterprises of the group is as follows: Zaporizhstal – cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel in sheets, including thicknesses from 8 mm to 120 mm, and coils, which are used for subsequent galvanizing. It also produces slabs of S235, S275 and S355 steel grades for the needs of its rolling mills in Italy and the UK, where they are used to produce thick plate and coils.

At the same time, trade restrictions against Chinese steel products (seamless hot-rolled and stainless steel pipes, rolled products with corrosion-resistant coating) did not create special problems in relations with China, as the presence in the Ukrainian market does not play a significant role for Chinese producers. At the same time, in 2024, supplies from China amounted to 10.6% of Ukrainian imports of rolled steel products.

The government may also consider the option of banning imports of rolled metal products to Ukraine if materials of Russian origin were used for their production. A lot of Turkish and even European steel products are made from Russian semi-finished products, but the question of the reality of such bans remains open.

«Sometimes we complain that the European Commission is too slow in implementing sanctions against Russian steel and rolled metal, but in this case, the EU member states clearly outpaced Ukraine in introducing restrictions that took place precisely at the initiative of representatives of our state. The European Commission has already introduced similar requirements for importers and they have come into force in EU member states since September 30, 2023, and in Ukraine this issue is still under development and there is no information when such requirements can be introduced in our country also», says Mauro Longobardo, CEO of ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih.

Post-war steel demand

In the conditions of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, the most demanded steel products will be construction steel products, which can include: sheet steel (thick sheet, galvanized, painted, etc.), rebar and wire rod, shaped steel (beam, channel, angle).

According to Mauro Longobardo, this is a historic moment for the country, as the restoration and development of infrastructure will be closely linked to structural reforms on the way to EU integration. Ukraine has a unique opportunity to familiarize itself with global best practices and the challenges faced by industries such as metals and mining, particularly in Europe. Through this, it will be possible to create a positive investment environment for interested foreign investors.

Now there are several estimates of demand for steel products. According to one of them, the potential need for steel for partial restoration of damaged infrastructure (the most likely scenario) is about 2 million tons by the end of 2024. The magnitude of the need will depend on which facilities will be rebuilt and whether there will be funding for these rebuilding needs.

Before the war, Ukraine exported about 80% of its steel production, but during the post-war recovery this balance could shift strongly in favor of domestic consumption. Our estimates show that Ukraine’s own steelmaking capacity is sufficient to meet the demand for key steel products needed for post-war recovery.

On the part of the government, it is crucial to stimulate domestic demand for steel products and a reasonable trade policy to protect the domestic market. In their turn, Ukrainian steel companies are ready to increase steel production in order to increase infrastructure reconstruction and industrial output, thus directly participating in large-scale projects at the level of the whole country. In particular, Metinvest expects the beginning of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and plans to participate in it, including infrastructure projects.

“At the core is infrastructure, because everything starts with it. And the most important thing is not just to restore the infrastructure, but to make it better and more modern,” said Metinvest CEO Yuriy Ryzhenkov at the business summit ‘EU-Ukraine: On the Road to URC2025’.