Electricity prices in Europe fell significantly in April thanks to renewable energy

In most European markets, the average monthly wholesale day-ahead prices in April of this year showed a significant decline.

According to Ember, they amounted to:

• Italy – €86.77/MWh (-2.3% m/m);
• France – €28.23/MWh (-47.2%);
• Germany – €62.39/MWh (-3.5%);
• Spain – €13.77/MWh (-32%);
• Sweden – €48.39/MWh (-8.2%).

In Ukraine, the weighted average price of electricity on the day-ahead market (DAM) in April 2024 amounted to UAH 3.333/MWh (€77.35 at the rate of UAH 43.1/EUR). Compared to March, it increased by 7.9%, according to Market Operator data.

Demand for DAM in April decreased by 12.07% compared to March. At the same time, supply decreased by 23.52% m/m.

According to the forecasts of The European Energy Exchange (EEX), the Central European exchange for electricity and related products, the basic settlement price of electricity futures on the German market in June 2024 will be €70.98/MWh, on the French market – €42.75/MWh, on the Spanish market – €51.58/MWh, on the Italian market – €92.26/MWh.

April trends

According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, in April, most European markets recorded the lowest monthly prices at least since June 2021, in particular, the lowest in its history in Iberia. This was facilitated by the high volume of solar energy generation, but wind energy production fell in most countries in the month compared to March. Demand for electricity in April decreased in all markets compared to March.

At the beginning of the month, average weekly electricity prices in major European electricity markets were below €50/MWh (except for Italy and the UK), with France’s average weekly figure at €9.88/MWh. This was driven by lower average gas prices and CO2 emissions, lower demand, and increased solar generation. In addition, wind power generation in Germany and France increased.

Later in the month, electricity prices rose (except in the Iberian market) as the production of certain types of renewable energy changed. This was also due to an increase in gas prices in mid-April.

Renewables

According to the Ember report, the share of fossil fuels in EU electricity generation fell to a record low of 23% in April. The previous record was reached in May 2023 (27%).

The share of coal was only 8.6% (30% in April 2023). Gas-fired generation accounted for 12.1% of the total electricity production in the block, down 22% y/y.

Overall, renewables generated 54% of electricity in the EU in April.

European policy

In April, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol criticized Europe for falling behind China and the United States by making «two historic monumental mistakes» in energy policy, relying on Russian gas and turning away from nuclear power. He told the Financial Times about this.

Birol believes that European industry is now paying the price for these mistakes and that a «new industrial master plan» is needed to rebuild the bloc.

The EU is lagging behind China and the US in areas such as clean tech production due to a combination of burdensome regulations and high energy prices. Electricity prices in the EU are typically two to three times higher than in the United States.

«Existing industries, especially heavy industry, are experiencing and will continue to experience significant costs compared to other major economies such as China and the United States,» Birol said.

As the newspaper notes, the EU has been successful in weaning itself off Russian gas since the invasion of Ukraine. However, the debate over nuclear power is more polarized. Countries such as France, Hungary and the Czech Republic are pro-nuclear, while other members of the bloc – Germany, Austria and Luxembourg – are opposed to this path, arguing that nuclear projects often experience delays and steep costs, and drain funds that could be better spent on renewable energy sources.

Fullness of gas storages

According to the AGSI platform, as of May 1, 2024, the EU-wide gas storage capacity utilization rate was 62.74%, and as of May 12, it increased to 64.77%.

In April, analysts at ING Financial Group noted that gas injection into European gas storage facilities slowed down. The storage level has changed from seasonal records in early April to levels more in line with those of 2020, which were observed at the end of the month.

In early April, TTF futures for the month ahead were trading from levels of just over €25/MWh, while in the middle of the month they rose to almost €34/MWh. The rise in oil prices, and consequently in gas prices, was caused by fears of an escalating situation in the Middle East. European energy markets reacted by rising electricity futures. Toward the end of the month, concerns receded, which had a positive impact on prices, which fell below €30/MWh.

In early May, prices rose again. A decrease in Norwegian gas supplies to Europe and a late cold snap on the continent increased demand for heating in the second half of April.

However, according to ING’s forecast, Europe will reach 100% of its gas storage by the start of the next heating season, and the TTF price will average €25/MWh by the end of the injection period.