Vale lowers its forecast for iron ore production in 2026

Brazilian mining company Vale has lowered its forecast for iron ore production in 2026 to 335-345 million tons, according to a company statement.

The previous forecast was 340-360 million tons. This year, the company expects production to reach approximately 335 million tons.

Agglomeration is expected to reach 31 million tons in 2025, 30-34 million tons in 2026, and grow to 60-70 million tons by 2030.

As for sales, the volume of medium-grade Carajás ore is forecast to reach 33 million tons in 2025 and 50 million tons in 2026. Sales of PFC (Pellet Feed China) products will reach 26 million tons this year and 40 million tons next year.

As a reminder, at the end of 2024, Vale achieved its highest iron ore production level since 2018 – 327.67 million tons, which is 2% more than a year earlier. Pellet production increased by 1.2% y/y – to 36.89 million tons.

As reported by GMK Center, CEO Gustavo Pimenta said that Vale is preparing to meet the growing demand for iron ore from India, which could double its steel production by the end of the decade.

In his opinion, increased sales to this country and other Asian markets will help compensate for stagnant demand from China, where steel production has remained at around 1 billion tons in recent years and may decline slightly. India will import approximately 10 million tons of Vale ore in 2025.