Vale increased iron ore production by 2.6% y/y in 2025

Brazilian mining company Vale increased its iron ore production by 2.6% year-on-year to 336 million tons last year, according to the company’s report.

As noted, this is the highest annual volume since 2018. Production exceeded last year’s forecast (325-335 million tons).

Pellet production decreased by 15% year-on-year – to 31.35 million tons at the end of last year.

In the fourth quarter, ore production amounted to 90.4 million tons, which is 6% more than in the same period of 2024, thanks to the stable operation of the Brucutu mine and the increase in the volume of the Capanema and VGR1 projects. Pellet production in October-December amounted to 8.3 million tons (-9% y/y), reflecting market conditions.

Vale reported that iron ore sales in the fourth quarter increased by 5% year-on-year to 84.9 million tons, in line with the increase in production volumes. In total, in 2025, they amounted to 314.35 million tons, which is 2.5% more than a year earlier.

According to the company’s forecasts, in 2026, production will amount to about 335-345 million tons of iron ore and 30-34 million tons of pellets. The Capanema project is expected to reach full capacity by the second quarter of 2026.

At the end of last year, Vale predicted that iron ore prices in 2026 would balance around $100/ton. In particular, an increase in supply from large mining companies, the development of the giant Simandou deposit in Guinea, and a gradual decline in demand from China are expected.