Ukrainian steelmakers produced 7.6 million tons of steel in 2024

Ukrainian steelmakers increased steel production by 21.6% in 2024 compared to 2023, from 6.23 million tons to 7.58 million tons, according to Ukrmetalurgprom. At the same time, the figure is significantly lower than pre-war levels, in particular, in 2021, steel production exceeded 21.37 million tons (production includes Azovstal and Ilyich Iron and Steel Works of Mariupol).

Steel production in Ukraine was marked by an upward trend in Q2-Q3 2024 and a slight decline in Q4. In particular:

• Q1 – 1.69 million tons (+2.9% q/q; +36.6% y/y);
• Q2 – 2.19 million tons (+29.7% q/q; +37.3% y/y);
• Q3 – 2.01 million tons (-8.1% q/q; +14.1% y/y);
• Q4 – 1.69 million tons (-15.8% q/q; +3.2% y/y).

The recovery in steel production in Q2-Q3 was facilitated by the reopening of sea exports at the beginning of the year, which allowed the export of finished products to distant markets and stimulated steel production. At the end of the year, demand in the global steel market slowed, and energy supply problems, coupled with rising electricity and logistics tariffs, forced domestic producers to slow down production.

In December 2024, Ukraine’s steel production amounted to 547 thousand tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 5.1% y/y. The average monthly steel production during the year was 631.3 thousand tons, up from 519.1 thousand tons in 2023.

Steel production in Ukraine in 2024 was much better than expected. At the same time, GMK Center analysts predict that 2025 will be a difficult year for the industry as the global steel market is going through a crisis. Ukraine’s steel exports are likely to decline, the pricing situation will deteriorate, and import restrictions will tighten around the world. As a result, production volumes may fall by 9.3% y/y – to 6.8 million tons this year.

As GMK Center reported earlier, steel production in Ukraine in 2023 decreased by 0.6% compared to 2022 to 6.23 million tons. In 2022, production volumes were at 6.26 million tons, with 3.64 million tons produced in the first quarter (mainly in January-February) and only 2.62 million tons in April-December.