Ukrainian steel industry exceeded expectations in 2024

Ukraine is making significant progress in steel production in 2024. According to preliminary results, steel output could reach 7.5 million tons, up 21% year-on-year. At the same time, this is still 65% less than the pre-war level of 2021, when 21.4 million tons were produced. This is stated in GMK Center’s article “Prospects for Ukraine’s steel industry in 2025”.

The launch of the sea corridor at the end of 2023 played a key role in the industry’s recovery. This route has significantly facilitated logistics on Ukraine’s western borders, relieved transportation routes and opened up new opportunities for steel exports.

In particular, in 2024, a second blast furnace was commissioned at ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (AMKR). As a result, exports of semi-finished products increased by 650 thousand tons (+60% over 11 months of 2024) and rolled products by 500 thousand tons (+40%).

The maritime corridor also contributed to the resumption of iron ore exports to China. In January-November 2024, Ukraine supplied 13 million tons of iron ore to China, accounting for 43% of total exports of this raw material.

Despite this year’s progress, forecasts for 2025 remain cautious. The war continues to pose serious risks to Ukraine’s iron and steel sector. An increase in negative factors could lead to a further decline in production and exports of steel products.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for the industry to remain competitive in both domestic and foreign markets. In particular, energy and logistical pressures are increasing: electricity prices are rising above European levels, and railroad transportation tariffs are increasing for the second time in three years. These factors increase production costs of the iron and steel company and threaten to reduce production or shut down facilities completely.

However, in 2024, Ukraine demonstrated that it is possible to achieve growth even in difficult conditions by finding new logistics solutions and increasing production capacity.

In 2023, Ukrainian steelmakers increased rolled steel production by 0.4% compared to 2022, to 5.37 million tons. Pig iron production during the year amounted to 6 million tons, down 6.1% compared to 2022, and steel production amounted to 6.23 million tons (-0.6% y/y).

The domestic steel industry has increased or approached the levels of 2022, where the bulk of production was in pre-war January-February.

Exports of rolled steel products in 2023 amounted to 1.78 million tons, while in 2022 it was 2.47 million, and in 2021 – 8.34 million tons. Imports of the relevant products reached 1.18 million tons last year, 621.6 thousand tons in 2022, and 1.12 million tons in 2021.