Ukraine's GDP

In 2022, the Ukrainian economy decreased by 28.8% y/y

In 2023, Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3% compared to the previous year, when the figure fell by 28.8% y/y. This is according to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

Last year’s nominal GDP amounted to UAH 6.54 trillion, with a deflator change of 18.5%.

In the first quarter of 2023, the decline in real GDP was 10.3% compared to the same period in 2022, in the second quarter the figure increased by 19.2% y/y, in the third quarter – by 9.6% y/y, and in the fourth quarter – by 4.7% y/y.

In the fourth quarter, nominal GDP amounted to UAH 1.93 trillion, compared to UAH 1.78 trillion in the third quarter, UAH 1.46 trillion in the second quarter, and UAH 1.36 trillion in the first quarter.

The National Bank of Ukraine estimated the country’s economic growth in 2023 at 5.7% y/y. The NBU maintained its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 at 3.6% and slightly downgraded its expectations for 2025 to +5.8% y/y. In the first quarter of 2024, the NBU expects the economy to grow by 7.1% and 4.8% in the second quarter.

The Ministry of Economy, according to preliminary data, estimates Ukraine’s GDP growth in January 2024 at +3.5% y/y. Positive economic dynamics at the beginning of the year were supported by rising investment demand, as well as expanded logistics opportunities for domestic producers to access foreign markets.

The implementation of the «Made in Ukraine» policy is expected to contribute at least 1% to GDP growth in 2024. This year, the state budget allocates UAH 45 billion for support programs.