Ukraine reduced iron ore exports by 8% y/y in 2025

In 2025, Ukraine’s mining industry reduced iron ore exports by 8% compared to 2024, to 30.99 million tons. This is evidenced by GMK Center calculations based on data from the State Customs Service.

China is traditionally the largest consumer of Ukrainian iron ore. During the period, shipments of raw materials in this direction amounted to 16.41 million tons (+8.7% y/y). Slovakia received 4.4 million tons (-11.4% y/y), and Poland received 4.17 million tons (-18.1% y/y).

In December, Ukraine exported 2.22 million tons of raw materials, which is 0.5% more than in the previous month, but 35.6% less than in December 2024. China received 1.12 million tons (-12.9% month-on-month; -45.4% year-on-year) of raw materials, Slovakia received 318,940 tons (-12.9% month-on-month; -38.4% y/y), and 259.39 thousand tons (+51.4% m/m; -34.4% y/y) to Poland.

In Q4, the indicator decreased by 18.9% compared to the same period in 2024, and by 14.4% compared to the previous quarter – 6.85 million tons – the lowest quarterly level in the last two years.

Revenues from exports of raw materials in December amounted to $161.33 million (-4.6% month-on-month; -40.9% year-on-year), and for the year – $2.34 billion (-16.6% year-on-year). During the last quarter, the figure was $524.93 million (-16.4% y/y; -3.4% q/q).

GMK Center expects that in 2026, iron ore exports from Ukraine will decline by 5% y/y, or by 1.5 million tons, to 29 million tons. The main factors are lower iron ore prices in China and the deterioration of Ukrainian suppliers’ competitive positions in this market against the backdrop of the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea and significantly higher logistics costs. At the same time, the decline may be partially offset by growing demand in the EU due to regulatory restrictions on steel imports. The forecast is based on market factors without taking into account military risks.

As a reminder, at the end of 2024, Ukraine increased its iron ore exports by 89.9% compared to 2023, to 33.699 million tons. Shipment volumes increased mainly due to the opening of the maritime corridor in August 2023. Revenue from iron ore exports from Ukraine in 2024 amounted to $2.8 billion (+58.7% y/y).

The main producers of iron ore raw materials in Ukraine are Ingulets Mining, Kryvyi Rih Iron Ore Plant, Poltava Mining, Yeristovsky Mining, Northern Mining, Central Mining, Southern Mining, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Sukha Balka, and Rudomain.