Ukraine needs to postpone CBAM requirements – Metinvest

The European CBAM is one of the main factors that may soon have a significant negative impact on Ukrainian steel exports. Steelmakers need government support to postpone the requirements of the mechanism and have time to adapt. This opinion was expressed by Metinvest Group’s Chief Operating Officer Olexander Myronenko at the Business Wisdom Summit 2025.

According to him, the amount of the carbon tax and, accordingly, the competitiveness of products in the EU market will depend on how much production is modernized.

“And this is also a big challenge for us, because we cannot invest in modernization now – it is difficult to raise funds because no one has any desire to invest in capital-intensive projects in Ukraine because of the war,” said Oleksandr Myronenko.

According to Metinvest’s COO, the plant’s modernization – from the moment the decision is made to the launch – will take 3-4 years. CBAM will start operating on January 1, 2026. Currently, there are no exceptions or special conditions for Ukrainian products. At the same time, domestic producers do not have access to special financing terms and grants for modernization that are available to European manufacturers.

During the war, the EU market has become a priority for Ukraine, so the CBAM will have a negative impact on its economy.

According to the Federation of Employers of Ukraine, Ukraine’s GDP may decline by 4.8-6.1% in 2026-2030. For a wartime and postwar economy, this is a big loss and limited opportunities for recovery. Therefore, our country needs special conditions with a sufficient transition period.

“Even if a carbon tax is introduced in 2028, and the war ends in 2025 or 2026, we simply do not have time. We really need government support to postpone these requirements and have time to adapt. After the war is over, it will take at least 3-4 years to modernize. We will carry it out, but it is important that we are given the time and opportunity to implement everything,” emphasized Oleksandr Myronenko.

GMK Center has updated its estimates of the impact of the carbon border adjustment mechanism on the Ukrainian economy based on 2024 export data to the EU. In 2026-2030, total export losses could exceed $4.7 billion (over 5 years). Last year, the country exported $24.8 billion worth of goods to the EU, of which 14.5% were subject to CBAM.