Turkish rebar prices declined in the second half of April

Rebar offers in Turkey fell from $570/mt to $537/mt EXW between April 11 and 25, according to Kallanish. Few buyers are reducing requests for plants, indicating that the cost of scrap has reached a three-year low.

Producers are offering higher prices, building on the bearish trend. On April 16, Kardemir, a major steel mill, offered a batch of rebar at $7/t more than in March. But this offer was not in wide demand. It managed to sell only 11 thousand tons, despite the deferred payment.

In January-February 2025, Turkey increased rebar exports by 35.7% – to 768.2 thousand tons. At the same time, Yemen accounted for the bulk of supplies. 228.3 thousand tons were shipped there, which is 138% more than in the same period last year. In April, there were no deliveries to Yemen.

The decline in rebar exports in March-April is also indicated by a decrease in steel production in March to 3.1 million tons compared to 3.2 million tons in the same month in 2024. The decline in export sales creates additional supply in the domestic market, which cannot recover from currency shocks. These factors allow buyers to continue to negotiate more favorable terms.

In China, rebar prices remained at $416/t FOT from April 11 to 20. At the same time, the decline was $12/t since the beginning of the month. A local minimum has probably been reached.

In India, from April 18 to April 25, rebar rose by $18/t to $680/t EXW Mumbai. Since the beginning of the month, the price has increased by $23/t.

All forecasts for the construction market in India, the main consumer of rebar, are extremely favorable. Thus, GlobalData expects a 6.2% increase in construction work in India in 2025, driven by investments in commercial, industrial and transportation projects.

At the same time, the housing sector has shown the first signs of a crisis. The supply of new housing in the 9 largest metropolitan areas of India in January-March 2025 decreased by 34% y/y, to 80.8 thousand units. At the same time, a decrease of 62% was recorded in Kolkata, to 1874 units, and 50% in Mumbai, to 6359 units.

This suggests that the price of rebar in India is close to a local maximum. Most market participants agree that the additional 12% duty on steel imports will not affect domestic prices.

Italian rebar prices fell by €10/t from April 18 to 25, returning to the level of the beginning of the month. A number of local producers stopped purchasing scrap in the second half of April. This indicates a reduction in rebar production.

As reported, production in the construction sector of the European Union in February 2025 decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous month. Compared to February 2024, the seasonally adjusted figure increased by 0.3%.