The World Bank expects China’s economy to slow down in 2025

According to World Bank estimates, China’s GDP growth rate next year will decrease to 4.3% compared to the projected 4.8% in 2024. This is stated in the institution’s new economic forecast for the Asian region.

China’s economic slowdown in 2025 is expected amid continued weakness in the real estate market, low consumer and investor confidence, as well as structural challenges such as an ageing population and global tensions, it said.

Expectations for 2024 rose by 0.3% compared to the bank’s April forecast. As CNBC notes, this reflects Beijing’s recent introduction of a series of stimulus measures that boosted investor confidence and sparked a stock market rally that has since stalled.

Economies in the rest of East Asia and the Pacific region will grow from 4.7% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025, thanks to increased domestic consumption, recovery in exports of goods and revival of tourism.

As a reminder, the OECD expects China’s growth to slow to 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. At the same time, political incentives will be offset by low consumer demand and the ongoing deep correction in the real estate sector.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the aggregate profit of China’s large industrial companies in January-August of this year increased by 0.5% year-on-year – to 4.653 trillion yuan ($664 billion), in August this indicator decreased by 17.8% y/y.