The NBU kept the key policy rate at 15.5%

The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has decided to keep the key policy rate at 15.5% per annum from April 18. This is stated in the regulator’s statement.

“This decision will help maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market, maintain control over inflation expectations and gradually slow inflation to the 5% target on the policy horizon,” the NBU said.

Given the significant level of uncertainty that has only increased in recent months, the regulator intends to respond flexibly to changes in the balance of risks to price dynamics and inflation expectations.

In addition, the NBU revised downward its inflation forecast for 2025 from 8.4% to 8.7% and maintained its expectation of a return to the 5% target in 2026.

In March of this year, inflation reached 14.6% y/y. The regulator expects inflation to return to decline in the summer and slow to single digits by the end of the year.

The NBU assessed GDP growth in the first quarter of this year as restrained, in particular due to the destruction of gas infrastructure and the resulting increase in gas imports. According to business surveys, the shortage of skilled workers caused by the war is also a significant deterrent.

“The aggravation of trade confrontations in the world has not yet affected the Ukrainian economy, but it will continue to hamper its recovery. Tariff wars are likely to lead to a certain weakening of external demand for certain Ukrainian exports, although agricultural products will remain in demand even as the global economy cools,” the regulator said in a statement.

Given this, the regulator has slightly downgraded its estimates of the dynamics of economic recovery. Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025 (3.6% in the January forecast). This will be driven, in particular, by increased harvests and a reduction in the electricity deficit, which, together with significant defense orders, will support industry.

In 2026 and 2027, real GDP growth will accelerate to 3.7-3.9%.

As GMK Center reported earlier, in January-March 2025, Ukraine exported goods worth almost $9.9 billion. In March, exports from the country reached more than $3.6 billion, up 4.5% y/y and 18% compared to February this year.