The National Bank of Ukraine has kept its key policy rate at 15%

The National Bank of Ukraine has kept its key policy rate at 15%.

“The NBU is postponing further easing of monetary policy in light of the risks of mounting inflationary pressures and deteriorating inflation expectations,” the regulator said in a statement.

This decision will support the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated instruments, the stability of the foreign exchange market, and the manageability of expectations with the aim of maintaining moderate inflation this year and bringing it to the 5% target over the policy horizon. It is also noted that if risks to price dynamics persist, the NBU will refrain from further easing of monetary policy, and if they intensify, it will be ready to raise the discount rate and take additional measures.

The regulator noted that in February, headline inflation accelerated slightly to 7.6% year-on-year, while core inflation remained at 7% year-on-year.

“As a result, headline inflation only slightly exceeded the NBU’s forecast trajectory, while core inflation was fully in line with it,” the statement noted.

At the same time, households’ inflation expectations deteriorated significantly, while for other groups of respondents they remained relatively stable.

The future trajectory of inflation may be higher than forecast, particularly due to rising energy prices amid the war in the Middle East, the NBU notes.

The consequences of Russian aggression remain the main challenge for inflation dynamics and economic development, but geopolitical risks have also significantly intensified over the past month. However, given the European community’s growing involvement in Ukrainian issues, the possibility of positive scenarios unfolding also remains.

The NBU notes that foreign aid makes it possible to finance the budget deficit and maintain international reserves at a high level, which is important for ensuring the stability of the currency market.

As a reminder, Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 slowed to 1.8% from 3.2% in 2024, according to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service. Ukraine’s nominal GDP last year stood at 8.93 trillion hryvnias.