The National Bank expects Ukrainian steel billet prices to rise by 5% in 2026

The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that by the end of 2026, average prices for steel billets will increase by 5.3% y/y to $489.2 per ton (on FOB Ukraine terms). Average iron ore prices are expected to decline by 3% y/y to $97.2 per tonne (on China import Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe terms).

These price assumptions are given in the NBU’s inflation report for January 2026.

According to the regulator’s estimates, in 2027, iron ore prices are expected to decline further by an average of 8% y/y, to $89.4/ton, and in 2028, by another 2% y/y, to $87.6/ton (China import Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe).

«Iron ore prices will gradually decline under pressure from a surplus due to increased supply from both the largest producers (Australia, particularly in Guinea, and Brazil) and smaller ones (India and China). Prices will remain relatively high amid decarbonization policies,» the NBU report says.

As for steel billets, the forecast prices for 2027 and 2028 are $510.4/t (+4.3% y/y) and $518/t (+1.5% y/y) (FOB Ukraine).

“Steel prices, particularly in Europe, will gradually rise due to the recovery in industrial and construction consumption amid increased costs for decarbonization of production. An additional factor will be the export licensing system introduced by China, which will lead to an increase in the price of Chinese steel,” say analysts at the National Bank.

As reported by GMK Center, global commodity markets are expected to experience a period of low prices and excess supply in 2026. According to World Bank forecasts, the price index for metals and minerals will remain virtually unchanged (+0.3% y/y) after growing by 3% y/y in 2025. Growth in demand linked to investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy infrastructure will partially offset the negative impact of low production activity and geopolitical uncertainty.