The National Bank expects lower prices for billets and iron ore in 2025

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates that by 2025, average prices for steel billets may decline by 5.2% y/y – to $478.1 per tonne (FOB Ukraine) and for iron ore by 11.3% y/y – to $97 per tonne (China import Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe).

These price assumptions are provided in the NBU’s inflation report with an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2025-2027.

The NBU expects iron ore prices to decline further: by an average of 8.7% to $88.6 per tonne in 2026 and by 1.1% to $87.6 per tonne in 2027 (based on China import Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe).

“Iron ore prices will slowly decline due to increased production by the world’s leading ore producers (Rio Tinto (Australia) – by more than 1.5% annually over the next three years, Vale (Brazil) – by about 3-5% annually over the next two years), as well as increased production in China, India and some African countries,” the National Bank said.

The price forecasts for steel billets for 2026 and 2027 are at $492/t (+2.9% y/y) and $502.5/t (2.1% y/y), respectively (FOB Ukraine).

“Steel prices will fluctuate in a sideways trend due to increased demand in the European market as a result of rising safety and infrastructure spending amid emission control policies. Additional factors will be the reduction in steel production in China and the intensification of the tariff confrontation between the United States and third countries,” NBU analysts emphasize.

As a reminder, as of the end of April this year, quotations in futures contracts for Fe 62% iron ore on exchanges in China and Singapore have already reached $99 per tonne. This proves that market participants do not expect prices to rise above the current level in the medium term.

As GMK Center reported earlier, BMI, a Fitch Solutions analyst, expected the average iron ore price to reach $100/t in 2025 as of the end of last year.