The government forecasts Ukraine’s GDP growth to accelerate to 4.5% in 2026

The budget declaration for 2026-2028, approved by the government on June 27, provides for an acceleration of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 by 4.5% on an annualized basis, in 2027 – by 5%, and in 2028 – by 5.7%. This is stated in the relevant text of the document.

As for the current year, the country’s economy is expected to continue to grow, but at a slower pace — at 2.7% y/y (in 2024, according to the State Statistics Service, real GDP growth was 2.9% y/y).

“The security factor remains a risk to economic growth, in particular the continued shelling of energy and transport infrastructure facilities and the continued destruction of production capacities,” the Cabinet’s budget declaration says.

On the other hand, the negative economic consequences of the war will be mitigated by the support of international partners, the adaptation of economic agents to new realities, and coordinated measures taken to support macroeconomic stability and domestic business.

As for the coming years, the document explains that GDP growth will occur, in particular, due to the development of export potential, industrial modernization, and the gradual recovery of domestic demand.

By the end of 2025, inflation is expected to slow to 9.5%.

As noted in the document, Ukraine’s further economic development will largely depend on the duration and course of the active phase of military operations, the amount of financial assistance from international partners, and the dynamics of migration processes. In particular, a reduction in security risks and support from international partners in overcoming the consequences of the war will create the conditions for the resumption of investment activity in the country.

Exports are expected to reach $66.25 billion in 2026, $76.3 billion in 2027, and nearly $85.9 billion in 2028.

At the same time, according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, taking into account seasonal factors, this indicator increased by 0.7%.

In its April forecast, the International Monetary Fund maintained its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth at 2% for the current year and 4.5% for the next.