The European Commission has improved its forecast for EU GDP growth in 2025 to 1.4%

The European Commission (EC) has improved its forecast for EU GDP growth in 2025 to 1.4% from 1.1%, which was expected in May. This is stated in the institution’s autumn economic review.

At the same time, the economic growth estimate for 2026 has been lowered to 1.4% from 1.5%, which was forecast in the spring. In 2027, the bloc’s economy is expected to grow by 1.5%.

The EC expects the eurozone as a whole to follow this trend, with real GDP growing by 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027.

Inflation in the EU will increase by 2.5% year-on-year this year and by 2.1% in 2026. The spring report predicted 2.3% and 1.9%, respectively.

As noted by the EC, economic growth in the first nine months of this year exceeded expectations. Initially, these figures were explained by a jump in exports in anticipation of higher import tariffs. However, investments in equipment and intangible assets also exceeded forecasts.

“Further growth in the third quarter demonstrates the resilience of the European economy and its ability to overcome unprecedented shocks,” the European Commission said in a statement.

The EC forecasts that Germany’s GDP will grow by 0.2% y/y this year, France’s – by 0.7%, Italy’s – by 0.4%, Spain’s –  by 2.9%, and Poland’s – by 3.2%. At the same time, the institution has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025 to 1.6% from 2% expected in May, and in 2026 to 1.5% from 4.7%.

It should be noted that inflation in the eurozone slowed to 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, compared to 2.2% in September, according to Eurostat’s preliminary estimate. Thus, the indicator is approaching the European Central Bank’s target level of 2%.