The crisis of excess steel capacity is deepening – global forum

Ministers and senior representatives of the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) have for the first time committed to addressing the root causes and negative consequences of the problem through a comprehensive system of joint actions. This is stated in a press release following the event.

They tasked the GFSEC with developing key elements of a framework program by June 2026.

Global excess steel capacity is expected to increase from 601 million tons in 2024 to 721 million tons by 2027, reaching its highest level in a decade.

According to the monitoring bulletin, global excess steel capacity grew by 5.6% year-on-year in the first six months of 2025, particularly in China, Iran, and Egypt. Global steel exports grew by approximately 3% year-on-year during this period.

The growth in Chinese steel exports in the first half of this year led to an increase in import penetration from 28.1% to 31% among non-GFSEC partners and from 5.4% to 6.6% among GFSEC trading partners.

Despite the increase in the number of protective trade measures, exports from sources of excess capacity continued to grow in the first half of the year, mainly flat products (+6% y/y) and long products (+12% y/y).

In addition to the framework program, the following steps were agreed upon within the GFSEC, among other things:

• strengthening monitoring of non-market policies and practices, as well as financing projects in the steel sector,
• increasing transparency and exchange of experience among GFSEC members,
• strengthening information and awareness-raising activities with steel-producing countries regarding joining the global forum.

It should be recalled that China will ban new steelmaking capacity and reduce steel production, which is the latest step aimed at balancing supply and demand in the industry. According to the 2025-2026 sector plan published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other agencies, government measures also include increasing the production of high-quality steel and encouraging its use in construction and transportation.