The Bank of France does not forecast economic growth in Q4

The Bank of France expects the country’s economy to stagnate in the fourth quarter of this year after the growth in July-September, which was stimulated by the Olympics. This is reported by Le Figaro.

According to the country’s central bank, economic activity in October-December should record a slight positive growth, but it will be offset by the backlash caused by the end of the Olympic Games – estimated at minus 0.2 percentage points. GDP. No figures are provided for the level of growth expected in the fourth quarter. The Olympics contributed to the growth of the French economy in the third quarter by 0.4% q/q.

By the end of 2024, the Bank of France expects growth of 1.1%.

According to a business survey of about 8.5 thousand companies, industrial activity in October increased due to the aerospace and agri-food sectors. However, the automotive industry continues to face problems, especially in the production of electric vehicles, which is suffering from competition from China and falling demand for these models.

Industrial order books remain below long-term levels in all industrial sectors, with the exception of aviation.

In November, the central bank expects little change in industry and services, as well as a decline in construction activity.

The monthly uncertainty indicator, based on business comments, remains “relatively high in all sectors.”

According to the report, company executives point to uncertainty about national economic and fiscal policy, as well as the unstable geopolitical situation, which usually leads to the suspension of investment projects.

The seasonally adjusted GDP of the European Union in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, when the bloc’s economy grew by 0.3%. Compared to July-September 2023, the EU economy grew by 0.9%. At the same time, the eurozone’s GDP increased by 0.4% qoq and 0.9% y/y over this period.