The annual cost of the CBAM for exports of steel products from Kazakhstan could exceed €100 million

Exports from Kazakhstan’s steel sector to the EU could face annual costs of over €100 million under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

This was discussed during the presentation of a report on the country’s readiness for CBAM. It was presented last week by the International Trade Centre (ITC) – a joint agency of the World Trade Organisation and the UN – in partnership with QazTrade Trade Policy Development Centre JSC (QazTrade), according to a statement from the EU Delegation to Kazakhstan.

The steel  sector is expected to be most affected by the European carbon tax. As noted by Jost Pauwelen, an ITC international expert and lead author of the report, Kazakhstan currently exports steel and aluminium products worth over €600 million to the EU annually. The assessment shows that reliance on the default CBAM emission values could lead to annual costs associated with the mechanism of over €100 million. Around 90% of this impact will affect steel bars and rods – estimated costs could exceed the value of the products by 123%.

The expert believes that the country’s exporters could significantly reduce these costs through a series of measures – monitoring and reporting actual emissions, accrediting local verifiers, reducing emissions at production sites, and strengthening domestic carbon pricing mechanisms.

In 2025, the EU’s share of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade stood at around 31%, and in the export structure at approximately 44%, noted Zhanel Kushukova, Deputy Minister of Trade and Integration of the Republic of Kazakhstan. She added that more than half of Kazakhstan’s aluminium exports are supplied to EU countries.

Nurlan Kulbatyrov, Deputy Director General of QazTrade, noted that the centre has already begun systematically adapting industrial exporters to the EU’s new requirements. The work is aimed at minimising the financial burden and maintaining the competitiveness of Kazakhstani products in one of the country’s most important markets.

As noted in a study by the GMK Center, the CBAM is expected to reduce exports of ferrous metallurgy products from Ukraine by 2.5 million tonnes by 2030. The overall impact of the mechanism on the country’s economy is estimated at -2.1% of GDP in 2030. This figure stands in stark contrast to the European Commission’s estimate of -0.01%.