Steel prices in India remained under pressure in the FY2025/2026 – BigMint

Steel prices in India during the 2025/2026 fiscal year (ending March 31) remained under pressure, as evidenced by a 2% year-on-year decline in the BigMint India Steel Composite Index.

The negative impact was driven by weak market sentiment and reduced production in key regions such as China, the EU, and the Far East. U.S. tariffs affected the Indian industrial sector, while the country’s prolonged monsoon season impacted the construction sector. At the same time, prices were supported to some extent by positive trade policies and a sharp decline in steel imports in the 2025/2026 fiscal year (-23% year-on-year).

Although steel prices declined for most of the year, beginning a steady recovery only in the fourth quarter (January–March 2026), raw material costs remained relatively stable.

For instance, the BigMint fine ore index for the domestic market rose by 10% to 5,455 rupees per ton (Odisha, approximately $65.5). Prices were supported by limited domestic supply. A shortage of high-quality and lump ore led to a significant increase in imports of this raw material.

Average prices for high-quality coking coal (CFR India) in the 2025/2026 fiscal year stood at $217/t compared to $226/t in the previous fiscal period. Weak sentiment in China, Japan, and the EU negatively impacted the cost of this raw material, while spot demand for seaborne shipments was largely met by India. Periodic supply disruptions in Australia, followed by the conflict with Iran, supported prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions toward the end of the fiscal year led to an increase in freight rates.

Domestic rebar prices fell by an average of 3–4% year-on-year during the last fiscal year, as overall prices for steel products dropped to multi-year lows. However, this segment was supported by protective measures implemented by the government.

At the same time, in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, the Indian steel industry demonstrated balanced growth in steel production amid a decline in global volumes. According to BigMint, it increased by 11% year-on-year to 168 million tons. Rapid urbanization and infrastructure investments contributed to the expansion of steelmaking capacity.

However, domestic steel consumption in FY2025/2026 increased by only 7% year-on-year, driven by private and public construction, favorable tax policies, and growth in the infrastructure and renewable energy sectors. Pressure on domestic supply was somewhat mitigated by a nearly 30% increase in exports of steel products.

It is worth noting that iron ore imports to India are expected to rise to a seven-year high in the 2025/2026 fiscal year due to a shortage of high-quality raw materials domestically and demand from JSW Steel. According to analysts and industry executives, total volumes for the period are likely to reach 12–14 million tons.