Steel exports from China will face increased protection measures in 2024

China’s strong direct and indirect steel exports will face tougher safeguards next year. This is the forecast made by Fastmarkets, citing market participants,

At the same time, in 2023, foreign supplies supported Chinese steel prices.

In its trade report, the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) noted that steel exports from China are expected to be more difficult given the tougher trade situation in foreign markets.

Export volumes are likely to be reduced as the EU, Brazil and India prepare to launch additional anti-subsidy investigations, impose import duties and approve quality parameters.

In terms of raw materials, low-grade iron ore will remain key for blast furnace production in China next year amid uncertain margins. Chinese buyers are expected to look for lower-cost options such as Indian fines as a cost-effective alternative to Australian fines after shifting procurement strategies in response to low steelmaking margins in 2022-2023.

Increased production by Australian mining companies, such as Rio Tinto, as well as new entrants such as Mineral Resources, is expected to boost regional supplies.

As GMK Center reported earlier, China’s steel exports have risen to a level that is disrupting international markets and could trigger new trade disputes. By the end of 2023, China may export about 90 million tons of steel. These volumes are close to the more than 110 million tons in 2015, when anti-dumping measures were introduced worldwide.