Steel demand in India to grow by 8-9% in 2025 – Crisil

Steel demand in India will grow by 8-9% in 2025 compared to the previous year, outpacing other countries. This forecast is made by the Indian rating agency Crisil, Deccan Herald reports.

The growth in demand will be driven by the transition to metal-intensive construction in the residential and infrastructure sectors, as well as improved demand from the engineering, packaging and other segments.

However, analysts are concerned about domestic supplies. According to Sekhul Bhatt, Director of Market Research at Crisil Market Intelligence and Analytics, in 2024, supply from Indian plants grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with long periods of planned and preventive maintenance.

According to the agency, the total steel production by the seven largest players in the Indian market last year increased by only 0.05% y/y, while rolled steel production grew by 0.5% y/y. However, steel and rolled products output by medium and small players increased by 4% and 11.3%, respectively.

Crisil expects steel prices in India to rise in 2025 if the proposed safeguard duty on steel imports is implemented.

“Domestic prices are under pressure due to lower global steel prices and are expected to remain soft in 2025. They have the potential to grow by 4-6%, depending on the implementation of the safeguard duty,” said Vishal Singh, research director at Crisil Market Intelligence and Analytics.

In 2024, prices for hot-rolled coils in the country fell by 9% year-on-year and for cold-rolled steel – by 7% year-on-year.

Last December, it was reported that India was preparing to introduce a temporary safeguard duty on steel imports of up to 25% to limit the supply of cheap products from China. The aim is to support domestic producers.