Exclusive Square billet prices rose $10-20 per ton in July

Slight market recovery in China has pulled up prices in other regions as well

Prices for square billet in most regional markets in July increased slightly by $10-20/t on average, which was due to the recovery of the Chinese market. More precisely, suppliers from other countries increased billet prices following the trend in the Chinese domestic market.

There is price stability on the Black Sea market of square billets (Black Sea FOB). Quotations for the product in July fluctuated in the range of $435-445/t. Such offer looks more preferable for Turkish buyers, as the products of domestic producers are much more expensive. For example, Kardemir plant sold billets at the end of July at $500-510/t on EXW terms. According to Kallanish, the cost of square billet offers in July increased by 2.5% or $13/t to $518/t (on Ex-Works terms).

Turkey’s billet imports are showing a very strong performance due to increased shipments from Russia. In June 2025 imports grew 3.4 times against June 2024 – up to 503.3 thousand tons. Russia remained the largest supplier (26% of the market) of billets to Turkey, having increased supplies in June by 3.3 times m/m – up to 130.4 ths tons. June price of Russian billets ($455/t) is much more attractive than supplies from other countries ($478/t). In its turn, Ukraine exported 17.5 ths tons of product to Turkey in June at $502/t, but its market share dropped to 3% from 12% in June-2024.

Billet prices in Tangshan (China) improved slightly for suppliers. July quotations rose by $28/t to $434/t amid talk of restrictions on production and exports, as well as optimistic market sentiment. In particular, the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) expressed concern about the sharp growth of Chinese billet exports this year and called for restrictions.

In Indonesia, the level of July quotations rose by $23/t to $468/t (CFR). The highest cost of square billet is observed in the Italian market (Ex-Works), where the July price increased by $14/t – to $576/t.

The only regional market where average quotations for square billet decreased in July (by $10/t to $490/t) was Saudi Arabia. Buyers in the Gulf countries doubted the sustainability of sharp price increases in China and Indonesia, while domestic supplies looked more competitive.

At the same time, some buyers around the world refrained from buying, preferring to watch prices, believing that Chinese billet is overvalued and the price increase is temporary.

Recall that average prices for square billets in most regional markets were stable in June, with a slight downward correction to $5/t, which was due to weak export demand in most countries.

As previously reported, the NBU estimates that in 2025 average steel billet prices may decline by 5.2% to $478/t FOB Ukraine. Further in 2026, the price is forecast to rise by 2.9% to $492/t, and in 2027 – by 2.1% to $502.5/t FOB Ukraine.