Reference prices for Brazilian slab rose by $30 per ton in January

Regional slab markets saw a trend toward higher prices last month, with increases of $5–30 per ton. This is due to positive sentiment in the US and Turkish steel markets. It is unlikely that the current upward trend will be long-term, as this would require fundamental reasons, such as a significant reduction in steel production in China. The rise in slab prices will inevitably affect the cost of flat products made from these semi-finished products.

The biggest price increase in January was seen in the Brazilian market. According to SteelOrbis, the reference export price of Brazilian slabs rose by $30 to $515/t (FOB) in January, reaching a local maximum for the last seven months.

This trend is accompanied by positive production and export figures. According to data from the Brazilian Steelmakers Association (IAB), in December 2025, local plants increased their production of semi-finished products by 14% compared to November, to 977,000 tons, of which 892,000 tons were slabs. At the same time, semi-finished product production in 2025 decreased by 5% year-on-year to 8.8 million tons. Slab exports from Brazil totaled 6.8 million tons (FOB) in 2025, with an average price of $524/ton, up 24% from 2024. In December 2025, the figure rose by 19% to 762,000 tons.

Slab prices on the European market rose amid the full implementation of CBAM. According to SteelOrbis, prices for Asian slabs increased in January after several months of relatively stable pricing. European mills continue to purchase slabs from their traditional Asian suppliers. The cost of slabs, excluding CBAM costs, is around $520/t CFR in Southern European ports. At the same time, the gap between prices for Asian slabs for Europe and other countries widened by the end of January due to CBAM costs.

Russia continues to supply slabs to the EU. In January–November 2025, slab imports increased by 9.9% y/y – to 3.2 million tonnes, but revenues fell by 5% to €1.4 billion. The bulk of imports went to Belgium (1.16 million tons, +1.2% y/y), Italy (718,000 tons, +7.7% y/y), and the Czech Republic (711,000 tons, +62.5% y/y). Under the EU’s 12th package of sanctions against Russia, EU importers are allowed to import 3 million tons of slabs from Russia per year until October 2026.

Turkey’s own slab production capacity is insufficient to meet domestic demand. In December, the country’s own slab production increased by 22% y/y to 1.3 million tons. However, at the end of 2025, production of the product decreased by 1.2% y/y – to 13.9 million tons.

At the same time, imports of the product decreased again. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), slab imports to Turkey in December decreased by 19% compared to the previous month, to 372,000 tons, after growing by 60% y/y in November. In total, imports amounted to 4 million tons in 2025 (-2% y/y). Russia remained the main source of supplies in 2025, with imports amounting to 2.1 million tons (+22% y/y) and its share increasing to 52% from 42% in 2024.

The average price of slab imports to Turkey in December was $463/t, compared to $464/t in November. The price difference between the largest suppliers was quite significant: Russia supplied slabs at an average price of $450/t, while Malaysia (14% of December supplies) supplied them at $501/t.

Price dynamics varied in other regional markets. Average slab prices in Japan rose by $15 – to $465/t in January. At the same time, average FOB Black Sea quotations rose to $445/t last month, compared to $440/t at the end of December. According to Kallanish, Russian producers had to revise their export prices, as the strengthening of the ruble significantly reduced the competitiveness of slab exports.

As Kallanish notes, during recent tenders for the supply of slabs to Iran, several large deals were recorded at $423–427/t on FOB terms. According to the Iranian Steel Producers Association (ISPA), in the first nine months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21–December 21, 2025), slab production increased by 6.8% y/y to 9.7 million tons, while exports jumped 44.6% y/y – to 1.5 million tons.

In terms of price benchmarks, the average benchmark price for slabs – hot-rolled coil (HRC) – rose by only $2 to $472/t (China FOB) in January, although in the middle of the month, quotations reached $475/t (China FOB).

It should be noted that at the end of December 2025, regional markets saw mixed trends in slab prices. The reference export price for Brazilian slabs remained unchanged in December at $485/t (FOB), which was a 6-month local high.