Prices for square billets declined in August

The global square billet market was stable in August, but the context was quite negative, with participants lacking the traditional autumn optimism. Prices for billets remained relatively stable in most major markets, although there was a gradual decline due to weak demand in China. Square billet prices in most regional markets fell by an average of $5-15 per tonne in August.

The Black Sea square billet market (Black Sea FOB basis) saw price stability. Product quotations in August ranged from $440-445/t. According to BigMint, Russian billets were quoted at $460-470/t (CFR) in Turkey, but the maximum level was in the range of $455-460/t. Analysts suggest that prices may fall to $430/t (FOB).

Turkish buyers are likely to prefer this offer, as similar products on the domestic market cost much more. According to Kallanish, the cost of square billets in August was $508/t (on Turkey Ex-Works terms).

Turkey imported 393,000 tons of billets in July (up 48% year-on-year) at an average price of $480/t. Russia was the largest supplier in July, with imports up 167% y/y – to 114,400 tons at an average price of $458/ton.

August billet prices in Tangshan (China) fell by $15 – to $422/t, which stimulated buyer interest at the end of the month, although prices were volatile within a narrow range in the first half of the month. August was characterized by an accumulation of warehouse stocks and a suspension of production at rolling mills in connection with the preparation and holding of a military parade in Beijing.

Offers for billets in the Persian Gulf countries were stable in August. Quotations in Saudi Arabia were at $486-490/t (Ex-Works), in Bahrain – $495/t with delivery in September-October. At the same time, in Indonesia, August quotations fell by $13 to $460/t (CFR).

The only regional market where average prices for square billets rose in August (by $12, to $573/t on an Ex-Works basis) was Italy, which already has the highest product prices among the markets under review.

It should be recalled that average prices for square billets in most regional markets rose by $10-20/t in July, which was due to the recovery of the Chinese market. More precisely, suppliers from other countries raised prices for billets, following the trend in the Chinese domestic market.

As previously reported, according to NBU estimates, in 2025, average prices for steel billets may decrease by 5.2% – to $478/t FOB Ukraine. Further, in 2026, prices are forecast to rise by 2.9% to $492/t, and in 2027 by 2.1% to $502.5/t FOB Ukraine.