Prices for rebar reached local highs at the end of the year

At the end of 2025, the global rebar market is characterized by local price peaks in the US, Turkey, and parts of the EU. Limited supply, seasonal factors, and infrastructure demand are supporting prices. At the same time, consumption in China remains weak due to a seasonal slowdown in construction and low production profitability, while limited production volumes and planned repairs are keeping prices stable.

Turkey

The Turkish rebar market saw a 3.6% increase in prices to $570/t FOB between November 7 and December 5, 2025. Prices rose by 1.4% in October and 1.2% in September, indicating a positive trend in the market over the last three months, while August saw a decline of 1.1%. The market is currently at its highest level since early April.

During the reporting period, the Turkish rebar market showed consistent price growth, which was primarily due to an increase in the cost of scrap and a reduction in real supply volumes. Companies repeatedly revised their prices upward, but this movement was formed under conditions of weak external demand. Export destinations remained problematic, with purchasing activity in the EU held back by uncertainty surrounding CBAM, and competition from North Africa and China making Turkish offers less attractive. Sales were limited to small batches to the Balkans, Africa, the UK, and Northern Cyprus.

Producers shifted their focus to the domestic market. Prices were supported by local shortages of certain product diameters and reduced capacity utilization, which created a shortage effect. Buyer activity intensified after each wave of price increases, especially against the backdrop of deferred payment terms from certain mills. However, at the end of the period, demand began to decline and the market slowed down. The first discounts appeared, along with signs of consumer reluctance to accept high levels.

Despite this, there are no fundamental reasons for a sharp drop in prices. The cost of scrap remains high, alternative offers of slabs and billets are limited, and capacity utilization remains low. By the end of the year, the market is likely to enter a phase of stabilization with possible corrections within a few dollars.

EU

In the EU, rebar prices showed mixed trends. In Northern Europe, offers have remained at €605/t ex-works since October, while in Italy, they rose by 3.8% in November to €540/t ex-works, with further increases expected. Italian prices also rose in October, by 2%, although this was preceded by a 9.7% decline in September. Currently, offers are gradually returning to their previous levels.

Prices were influenced by several key factors: supply constraints due to production incidents, including a fire at the Ferriere Nord plant, seasonal production cuts, and shortages of certain product diameters, which put pressure on suppliers. Higher scrap, energy, and CO2 quota costs, as well as the expected introduction of CBAM, allowed producers to offer higher prices.

Demand in Southern Europe was supported by infrastructure projects financed by the European Recovery Fund, but overall activity remained moderate due to low construction activity, weather factors, and strong competition from cheaper Spanish and Turkish products. French and Italian producers tried to raise their quotes, but most sales were limited to small batches as buyers were cautious due to CBAM and market volatility.

Further moderate growth in Italian quotations and stabilization in northern Europe are expected by the end of the year. Shortages, high production costs, and import restrictions will support prices, while CBAM will help reduce competition from external suppliers, creating favorable conditions for producers in Q1 2026.

United States

In the United States, rebar prices also rose in November, by 2.2%, exceeding the mark of $1,003.1/t ex-works, the highest level in at least the last two years. October also saw an increase of 2.3%.

Prices were supported by limited supply, low import volumes, and high scrap costs. Producers, including Nucor and Gerdau, raised prices several times by $25-30/t for new orders, which met with minimal resistance from buyers as stocks were low and imports from abroad were almost non-existent due to high tariffs and restrictions. The market was also supported by government infrastructure programs, which are shaping orders for 2026.

Demand in November remained mixed across regions, with moderate activity in the residential sector due to the seasonal slowdown in construction. Limited supply became the main driver of the market. Delivery times increased to January-February 2026, while import volumes from Turkey, South Korea, and Europe remained minimal. The scrap market was stable with an upward trend in December, further supporting rebar prices.

High prices are expected to persist through the end of the year due to tight supply and low imports, and a potential increase in scrap prices in December could stimulate a new round of growth for US producers.

China

On the Chinese market, rebar offers rose by 3.5% in November to $445.44/t FOT Warehouse, the highest since early August.

November-December was characterized by weak demand and limited supply on the Chinese rebar market. Rebar prices rose amid declining inventories, while the spot market remained stable with minor local fluctuations. Demand was held back by a seasonal slowdown in construction, weak real estate activity, and low production profitability.

Producers limited output due to scheduled maintenance of blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces, partly due to the early start of winter shutdowns in northern regions, which created a shortage in southern and eastern provinces. During the period, construction steel inventories declined, particularly in the southwestern and northern regions, while the northeastern regions saw a slight accumulation.

Weak demand is expected to continue at the end of the year amid limited supply and expectations of the results of political and economic measures.