Billet prices rose by $10–20 per ton in regional markets in May

In most regional billet markets, prices rose slightly in May—by $10–20 per ton. The Gulf countries were an exception, where the war in the region created a unique market situation: prices fell from $518/t to $514/t.

Overall, the global square billet market started the month on a positive note following the May holidays. However, by mid-month, the upward trend had stalled in all key markets, including China and Turkey. By the end of the month, prices began to decline following the drop in steel and raw material prices in China.

Turkey

In the Black Sea square billet market (Black Sea FOB), average prices rose by $13 in May, reaching a high not seen since early 2025—$483/t. The strengthening of the ruble continues to reduce the attractiveness of Russian exports.

According to Turkish buyers, an acceptable price for Russian billets is $505–510/t CFR Turkey, while Russian suppliers are aiming for at least $515/t CFR. However, demand remained weak at the end of the month due to low rebar sales and the approaching Eid al-Adha holiday.

At the same time, Russian billets remain in demand both on the domestic market and in Iran, which was itself an exporter of this product prior to the conflict in the Persian Gulf. Therefore, Russian suppliers have no significant incentive to lower prices for Turkey.

The average price of square billets on Turkey Ex-Works terms also rose in May—by $7/t, to $550/t, although at the beginning of the month, prices had climbed to $568/t. According to Kallanish, on May 13, the Kardemir plant held a tender for the sale of billets, lowering the price by $5–10 per ton—to $530/t for the S235JR grade and to $540/t for the B420 grade. These quotes do not include 20% VAT.

Buyers of Turkish rolled steel use these quotes as a benchmark when formulating their offers. However, they remain unprofitable for Turkish mills, as they purchase Russian billets at higher prices.

Demand for domestic billets is further supported by a current requirement for Turkish producers: for rolled steel exports, at least 25% of steel raw materials must be purchased on the domestic market. At the same time, domestic billet production in Turkey fell by 1.6% y-o-y in the first three months of the year, to 5.7 million tons.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), billet imports to Turkey rose again in March—by 27% MoM after a 46% MoM increase in February—reaching 548,000 tons. Overall, imports for the first quarter increased by 73% year-on-year, to 1.3 million tons.

Russia remained the largest supplier in January–March, with 388,000 tons (+108% y/y). It was followed by China, with 252,000 tons (+145.7% y/y), and the UAE, with 115,000 tons. In March, the main growth in imports was driven by Asian suppliers: Indonesia (83,000 tons, 15% of the market), China (76,000 tons, 14%), and Malaysia (53,000 tons, 10%).

ASEAN countries

Throughout May, billet prices in ASEAN countries fluctuated sharply. Buyers in the region, particularly in the Philippines and Indonesia, held back on purchases and resisted high prices, hoping for a further decline from the psychological threshold of $500/t CFR. Demand was also constrained by uncertain market prospects and inflationary pressures.

Export offers from Chinese mills competed with products from Indonesia’s Dexin Steel, whose pricing policy followed the dynamics of the Chinese market. At the end of the month, Dexin lowered prices to $485/t FOB.

China

According to Kallanish, average prices for billet from Tangshan in May ranged from $445 to $456 per ton. At the beginning and end of the month, prices rose in tandem with futures; an explosion at a coal mine in late May served as an additional factor. In the middle of the month, prices, on the contrary, fell amid a general weakening of the futures market.

Local steelmakers operated under pressure throughout the month due to low or zero profitability. During periods of price increases, their losses could reach 50 yuan/t, so companies either cut production or purchased billets in minimal batches to keep their facilities running. Purchasing activity increased only during periods of price declines in the middle of the month.

Overall, at the beginning of the month, the Chinese square billet market was dominated by a positive mood following Labor Day celebrations amid rising steel futures. Midway through the period, the upward trend came to a halt. By the end of the month, the price decline continued due to falling steel prices and widespread coal mine shutdowns.

Persian Gulf

According to Kallanish, average billet prices in the Persian Gulf countries fell by $4 in May to $516/t CFR. Amid a lull in ASEAN, Indian suppliers, notably RINL, redirected volumes to Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, the price situation in the region remained extremely volatile: in early May, prices fell to $481/t CFR, but by mid-month they rebounded to $528/t CFR.

By the end of the month, prices fell again due to a drop in Chinese futures, and most buyers expected further price declines after trading resumed following the end of Eid al-Adha.

Italy

The average price of square billets on an Ex-Works basis in Italy rose by $18 in May compared to the end of April, reaching $621/t.

As previously reported, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that in 2026, the average price of steel billets will rise by 4.9% year-on-year, to $487.7/t on FOB Ukraine terms. The forecast for 2027 and 2028 is $510.4/t (+4.7% y/y) and $518/t (+1.5% y/y), respectively.