Prices for billets fell by $5–10 per tonne on regional markets in February

In February, regional markets for square billets mostly saw a slight decline in prices of $5–10 per ton. At the beginning of the month, several regional markets saw active trading, but price changes were minimal. In the middle of the period, prices remained stable, although negative expectations prevailed in the market due to the lull associated with the holidays in China. At the end of the month, quotations remained at the same level, but with positive expectations of support from China, where the New Year celebrations had ended.

Turkey

On the Black Sea market for square billets (on a Black Sea FOB basis), average quotations in February fell by $3 to $440/t. Russian suppliers tried to raise billet prices due to limited supply and unfavorable exchange rates, but Turkish producers refused to buy above $460/t CFR.

In February, deals involving raw materials on the Turkish market were few and far between, with trading taking place only at a discount. Market activity was weak last month for a number of reasons: low sales of rebar on the domestic market, a slowdown in work during Ramadan (February 17–March 19), and geopolitical uncertainty due to tensions in the Middle East (at the end of the month).

At the same time, the price of square billets on Turkey Ex-Works terms fell by an average of $8 to $505/t. According to Kallanish, the Kardemir plant sold 70,000 t of billets in February, reducing the price by $5-10. The tender in the middle of last month was held at the following prices: $490/t (grade S235JR) and $495/t (grade B420). These quotations do not include 20% VAT.

Following changes in the DIR (domestic processing regime) last fall, Turkish billet buyers are mainly placing orders on the domestic market. In January, local producers increased billet output by 4.4% y/y – to 2.1 million tons.

China

According to Kallanish, average prices for Tangshan billets remained stable at $420/t throughout February. They rose by $3/t only at the end of the month, when sellers raised their quotes in anticipation of a rise in steel futures amid the armed conflict in the Persian Gulf. Overall factors in February did not contribute to active trading and production – activity was low due to the long Chinese New Year celebrations and large billet stocks.

Persian Gulf

The situation on the billet market in the Persian Gulf countries was quite active in February, although the onset of Ramadan was felt from the middle of the month. According to Kallanish, average quotations in the Gulf countries fell by $9 to $444/t (CFR) in February. Above-average activity was recorded in the Saudi market, where quotations rose by $10 last month to $510/t (Ex-Works), driven by a $20/t increase in rebar prices.

Italy

Average prices for square billets at the end of February compared to the end of January in Italy (on an Ex-Works basis) rose slightly to $594/t, although prices had already reached $600/t during the previous month. The rise in prices for semi-finished products in Europe is linked to the introduction of CBAM and the reformatting of their import flows.

As previously reported, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that by the end of 2026, average prices for steel billets will increase by 5.3% y/y – to $489.2 per ton (on FOB Ukraine terms). The forecast prices for 2027 and 2028 will be $510.4/t (+4.3% y/y) and $518/t (+1.5% y/y) (FOB Ukraine).