Potential EU anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel may lead to shortages – Assofermet

Potential EU anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates from four countries – Japan, Vietnam, Egypt and India – could lead to a significant shortage in the domestic market. This is stated in an analytical note by the Italian steel distributors’ association Assofermet, Kallanish reports.

Paolo Sangoi, President of the Association’s distribution segment, warns that the competitiveness of Italian buyers and service centers is affected by the restriction on the import of hot-rolled coils from third countries.

The market is currently experiencing stagnant consumption and low prices for these products. However, Paolo Sangoi points to a possible significant shortage if demand increases and consumption improves, potentially resembling the situation in 2021 and 2022. If consumption recovers and there are no imports, the shortages seen in the past could reappear, causing problems for buyers. For now, EU steel producers are open to negotiations.

According to Assofermet, a 15 percent restriction on imports of hot-rolled steel plates to the EU has already pushed 1.6 million tons of steel off the market for European buyers.

According to the association, the higher costs that importers will have to bear will be passed on to end users, manufacturers of components and finished steel products, which will affect their level of competitiveness in international markets.

As for the forecasts, Assofermet does not expect consumption to recover this year, but the situation may improve in the first quarter of 2025. Prices need to change direction, as both producers and buyers of hot-rolled plates need to increase them along the entire value chain. However, according to Paolo Sangoi, this cannot be achieved without a commitment to reduce production volumes.

In August 2024, the European Commission announced the launch of an anti-dumping investigation into imports of certain hot-rolled steel products made of iron, unalloyed or other alloys from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam. The complaint was filed on June 24 by the European Steel Association (EUROFER).

Earlier, it was expected that the EU’s anti-dumping investigation against four steel exporters could affect more than half of the bloc’s hot-rolled coil imports. In January-May of this year, these countries accounted for about 51% of HRC imports, totaling almost 4.3 million tons in the period.