If the ports still blocked, the economy is expected to decline by 30% by the end of the year
Ukraine’s seaports unblocking will reduce the decline of the country’s economy by the end of 2022 to 22-25%, Olena Bilan, chief economist at the Dragon Capital investment company told, according to Interfax-Ukraine.
At the same time, Olena Bilan believes that without the unblocked ports, Ukraine’s GDP will decrease by 30% by the end of the year.
“A fall of 50% of GDP at the end of the year is a very pessimistic assessment. It can happen if the invaders make progress in occupying new territories. I do not think it will happen. We expect a 30% drop in the economy if hostilities subside. And if the ports open, there could be a drop of 22-25%,” she said during an online CASE discussion.
Concorde Capital, in turn, estimates the recession of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 at 35-40%.
“Even if the war ends today, we will be able to resume a maximum of 80% of what was before February. On average for the year, we will have a fall closer to 35-45% of GDP,” said Olexandr Parashchiy, head of the analytical department at Concorde Capital.
Earlier GMK Center reported that the World Bank predicts a fall in Ukraine’s GDP by 45.1% by the end of 2022, while before the Russia’s invasion, the economy was expected to grow by 3.2%. The Cabinet of Ministers estimates the fall in Ukraine’s GDP due to the open military aggression of the Russian Federation at 35% or more.
The Ministry of Economy expects Ukraine’s GDP to decline by 16% in the first quarter. At the end of the year, the figure could reach 40%. The National Bank, in turn, forecasts a decrease of Ukraine’s GDP by at least a third by the end of 2022.