OECD cuts Ukraine’s steelmaking capacity estimate to 8 mln t

According to information from Ukrmetallurgprom, Ukraine’s steel association, the OECD has significantly revised its estimate of the country’s annual steelmaking capacity. An updated report, set to be discussed by the OECD Steel Committee in the coming days, indicates that Ukraine’s steelmaking capacity has stood at 8 mln tonnes per year since 2023.

Previously, OECD estimates suggested that Ukraine’s crude steelmaking capacity remained at 38.7 mln tonnes annually since 2020. The sharp downward revision reflects the exclusion of plants located in the temporarily occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the use of updated data that more accurately captures the actual operating capabilities of facilities under Ukrainian control.

According to Ukrmetallurgprom, in 2013, nominal steel capacity of Ukraine stood at 42.5 mln tonnes, but following the first Russian invasion in 2014 and the loss of steelmaking assets in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, it fell to 25.3 mln tonnes by 2020. The full-scale invasion in 2022 led to further losses, with four steel plants lost. As a result, nominal capacity dropped to 16.2 mln tonnes per year, of which around 8.2 mln tonnes has been decommissioned. So, current nominal steelmaking capacity of Ukraine is 8 mln tonnes.

In 2025, Ukraine produced 7.4 mln tonnes of crude steel, implying a capacity utilization rate of 92.5%. This suggests that the country currently has no excess steelmaking capacity, and domestic producers don’t have possibility to increase output significantly under existing conditions.

In early 2026, production trends have weakened. Crude steel output declined by 16.4% y-o-y in January and by 10.0% in February. Amid ongoing hostilities, electricity shortages, and rising fuel costs, in 2026 monthly steel production is unlikely to exceed 600 ths tonnes and is expected to remain below the peak levels seen in previous years. The data underscores a new reality for Ukraine’s steel sector, where output growth is structurally constrained and unlikely without substantial new investments and a normalization of operating conditions.