JPMorgan raises global recession risk assessment to 60% in 2025

JPMorgan Banking Holding has raised the probability of a recession in the US and the world in 2025 to 60% from 40% previously announced. This is reported by Reuters.

Brokerage companies are trying to revise their forecast models as the tariff crisis threatens to undermine business confidence and slow global growth.

“Disruptive U.S. policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” the bank said in a statement.

It is also noted that the country’s trade policy has become less favorable for business than expected. In addition, the effect is likely to be exacerbated by retaliatory tariff measures, deteriorating business sentiment in the United States, and supply chain disruptions.

Last week, the US President announced the introduction of a 10 percent basic duty on imports to the United States and higher reciprocal tariffs for dozens of countries. China responded on April 4 with its own 34% levy on U.S. goods, heightening concerns about an escalating trade war and causing chaos in global financial markets.

Before the announcement of the US tariffs, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession in the US to 35% from 20%, noting that economic fundamentals are not as strong as in previous years. Other firms, including Barclays, Global Research, and Deutsche Bank, have also warned that the US economy will face a greater risk of slipping into recession this year if Trump’s new taxes remain in place.

At the same time, Bloomberg reports that Trump said on April 3 that he was open to lowering tariffs if his trading partners could offer something “phenomenal.”

In a note to clients, JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman said that the bank is not making any immediate changes to its forecasts, as it wants to see the initial implementation and the negotiation process gain momentum.

“However, we view the full implementation of the announced policies as a significant macroeconomic shock that is not currently included in our forecasts. Thus, we emphasize that these policies, if continued, are likely to push the US and possibly the global economy into recession this year,” he said.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Stellantis NV has announced temporary layoffs at its US plants and is suspending production at two assembly plants in Mexico and Canada amid Trump’s tariffs. The downtime at the Windsor plant (Ontario, Canada) begins on April 7 and will last two weeks, while the assembly plant in Toluca (Mexico) will be idle for the entire month of April.