Iron ore market fluctuates within local lows

Iron ore prices have remained low since early October, reflecting mixed demand dynamics and the impact of macroeconomic and political factors. On the Singapore Exchange, November offers are hovering around $105/t, and on the Dalian Exchange, they are in the range of $109-110/t for January futures. As of October 14, prices stood at $109.55/t (-0.5% compared to September 30) in Dalian and $105.1/t (-0.2%) in Singapore.

The beginning of October coincided with the Chinese holiday period, which traditionally reduces activity on the spot market. At this time, prices remained stable, and traders expected a resumption of purchases by metallurgists. The end of the Chinese Golden Week holiday did indeed bring a short-term upturn, with prices rising to $106-107/t in Singapore and $110-113/t in Dalian amid expectations of restocking, growth in daily ore consumption, and record import volumes. In particular, China purchased 116.3 million tons of iron ore in September, up 11.7% year-on-year, confirming steady demand.

However, further developments put pressure on the market again. Rising geopolitical tensions and new trade restrictions between the US and China dampened investor sentiment, and by October 14, prices had returned to the low levels seen at the beginning of the month. An additional factor was the correction in related markets, in particular the decline in pig iron prices in Tangshan.

At the same time, fundamentals remain relatively stable. Pig iron production in China is declining slightly, and blast furnace utilization remains at a sufficient level, ensuring basic demand for raw materials. The growth in port stocks is combined with a gradual reduction in reserves at the plants themselves, which creates the conditions for a resumption of purchasing activity.

In the coming weeks, the market will remain under pressure from external factors, primarily trade conflicts and general macroeconomic uncertainty. However, the potential for further price declines is limited, as demand for steel in China is supported by high exports and seasonal infrastructure projects. Quotations are expected to fluctuate in the range of $103-108/t in Singapore and $108-112/t in Dalian, and a sustained break below $100/t is only possible if there is a significant reduction in steel production or new political restrictions.