Inflation indicators

Analysts expected a more significant weakening of consumer price growth

Inflation in the euro area in February 2024 increased by 2.6% y/y, slowing down compared to January, when the figure was 2.8%. This is evidenced by preliminary data from Eurostat.

The analysts surveyed by Trading Economics expected a more significant slowdown in consumer price growth, to 2.5%.

At the same time, annual core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, slowed to 3.1% in February (down from 3.3% in the previous month), the lowest since March 2022. At the same time, experts expected core inflation to weaken even further, to 2.9%.

Energy prices in the euro area fell by 3.7% in February, compared to 6.1% in January.

At the same time, according to preliminary data from national statistical authorities, inflation in Germany slowed to 2.5% y/y in February (2.9% in January), and in France, the second largest EU economy, to 2.9% y/y after 3.1% in January 2024.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the German government will revise its forecast for GDP growth in 2024 to 0.2% y/y from 1.3% previously expected. Last year, Germany’s economy decreased by 0.3% compared to 2022, which increased concerns about its deterioration.

Also, analysts expect global GDP to grow by 2.1-2.9% in 2024. They predicted a loosening of monetary policy, lower inflation and high uncertainty. The European economy showed sufficient resilience last year, but lost its growth. Inflation remains one of the key challenges for Europe,