India’s coking coal imports will grow to 115 million tons by 2030 – EY Parthenon

India will significantly increase its imports of coking coal in the coming decade, according to a joint report by EY Parthenon and the Indian Steel Association, released in September. According to forecasts, by 2030, imports will reach 115 million tons, compared to about 60 million tons in fiscal year 2024. This will happen despite the ambitious goals of the government’s Mission Coking Coal program, aimed at reducing dependence on imports.

Demand for coking coal in the country will reach 130-140 million tons amid growth in steel production – from 152 million tons in 2025 to 220 million tons in 2030. Although domestic production of raw materials is forecast at 140 million tons, only 15 million tons will undergo enrichment suitable for use in metallurgy. The situation is complicated by low utilization of coal enrichment plants, high ash and sulfur content in reserves, as well as delays with auctions and permits.

Today, India covers about 90% of its needs through imports, with Australia being the main supplier. Additional volumes come from the US, Canada, and Russia, as well as from new sources such as Mongolia and Mozambique, which allows for risk diversification. At the same time, the lack of strategic reserves makes local plants vulnerable to price fluctuations, logistics risks, and currency fluctuations.

To reduce its dependence, India is implementing reforms: new auction models favorable to foreign investors, incentives for factory development, and mechanization of mining. In January 2025, a domestic coking coal price index (CICCI) was launched to increase market transparency.

In the long term, the country’s strategy combines diversification of supplies, participation in foreign projects, and green technologies. However, experts warn that a significant reduction in demand for coking coal is not possible before 2035.

It should be recalled that global trade in coking coal in the first half of 2025 fell by 6% y/y – to 172.4 million tons. India imported 30.86 million tons of raw materials. The country reduced supplies from Australia by 14% y/y, to 15.03 million tons. In contrast, imports from Russia increased by 51% y/y, to 5.3 million tons, due to competitive pricing amid sanctions.