In regional markets, prices for billets rose by $5–10 per ton in January

In January, regional markets for square billets mostly saw a slight increase in prices of $5–10 per ton. In particular, average prices on the Black Sea billet market rose by $5 – to $443/t in January.

At the beginning of the month, price increases in the main billet markets were driven by moderately positive expectations and rising prices in China. In the middle of the period, the market stabilized thanks to a gradual improvement in demand. At the end of the month, quotations remained at the same level, but with negative expectations due to the lack of significant support from China or raw materials.

On the Black Sea market for square billets (on a Black Sea FOB basis), average quotations in January rose by $5 – to $443/t. According to BigMint, Russian sellers began to raise prices due to rising production and logistics costs, rather than a recovery in demand. Interest in Russian billets on the Turkish market was limited by oversupply and a seasonal slowdown in construction. Moreover, due to the strengthening of the ruble and the decline in the potential profitability of exports, Russian billet suppliers temporarily left the market. Some market participants expect demand to recover only after Ramadan (February 17 – March 19).

At the same time, the price of square billets on Turkey Ex-Works terms fell by an average of $10 to $513/t. According to Kallanish, Kardemir sold 105,000 t of billets in two tenders in January, lowering the price by $5 twice. The second tender at the end of January was held at the following prices: $495/t (grade S235JR) and $505/t (grade B420). These quotations do not include 20% VAT.

This was in line with market expectations, as prices for imported billets in Turkey fell at the end of January amid a weakening Chinese market. In addition, billet trading was under pressure due to high scrap prices, low rebar sales, and high production costs.

Following changes in the DIR (domestic processing regime), Turkish billet buyers are mainly placing orders on the domestic market. In December, local producers increased billet output by 16% y-o-y to 2.23 million tons, and by 6.1% y-o-y to 24.2 million tons for the whole of last year.

Billet imports to Turkey in December last year decreased by 22% y-o-y to 352 thousand tons. At the same time, in 2025, billet imports to Turkey increased by 15% y-o-y to 4.3 million tons. Russia became the largest supplier, delivering 1.04 million tons (+50% y-o-y) and increasing its share to 24% compared to 19% a year earlier. According to Kallanish, Ukraine supplied 204,000 tons of billets last year (+6% y-o-y), accounting for 5% of the market.

According to Kallanish, prices for billets from Tangshan fluctuated in January under the influence of local market conditions. At the same time, the overall factors were rather negative: activity remained low, many local rolling mills were idle due to the holidays, buyers were cautious, and market expectations were pessimistic. Overall, average billet prices in Tangshan remained relatively stable in January, ranging from $419 to $426/t.

The situation on the billet market in the Persian Gulf countries in January was positive, with prices rising slightly. According to Kallanish, average quotations in Saudi Arabia rose by $20 in January to $502/t (Ex-Works). This was due to higher prices for scrap and rebar. At the same time, the market is under pressure from cheap billets from China, which are offered at $470–475/t on CFR terms.

In Indonesia, quotations in January were also fairly stable, ranging from $450 to $460/t (CFR).

Average quotations for square billets at the end of January compared to the end of December in Italy (on an Ex-Works basis) increased by $11 to $591/t amid rising prices for a number of steel products following the introduction of CBAM from the beginning of 2026.

It should be noted that regional markets for square billets saw a slight increase in prices at the end of December, although weak demand prevailed almost everywhere. At the beginning of the month, most major markets saw a cautious upward trend, driven by improved sentiment in Asia. By the end of the month, the price situation had stabilized amid low activity and weak demand ahead of the New Year.

As previously reported, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that by the end of 2026, average prices for steel billets will increase by 5.3% y/y to $489.2 per ton (FOB Ukraine). The forecast prices for 2027 and 2028 will be $510.4/t (+4.3% y/y) and $518/t (+1.5% y/y) (FOB Ukraine).