In 2026-2030 total export losses of Ukraine due to CBAM may exceed $4.6 bln

Ukrainian economy is traditionally export oriented. During the war the EU has become the main trade partner considering blocked Ukrainian seaports. CBAM will create additional obstacles for Ukrainian companies exporting goods to the EU.

According to recent GMK Center’s research “How EU CBAM could weaken economy of Ukraine”, CBAM may be applied to 15-17% of Ukrainian exports to the EU. In 2023 Ukrainian exports of goods which fall under CBAM regulation was $3.6 bln. 93% of Ukrainian exports which falls under CBAM regulation is iron & steel products.

The losses from CBAM for Ukrainian economy will increase over time. In 2026 (the first year of full CBAM introduction) export losses may reach $202 mln. In 2030 this indicator could be $1.4 bln. Due to CBAM in the EU Ukraine may stop export of cement, fertilizers, pig iron, billets, long steel products after 2030. In 2026-2030 total export losses may exceed $4.6 bln.

GDP losses will be greater considering intersectoral links in Ukrainian economy. For example, iron & steel sector impacts on operation of coal and coke industry, machinery, service sector. In 2026 Ukraine could lose up to $790 mln of GDP due to CBAM. In 2030 GDP losses could be up to $4.9 bln.

Export to the EU is vital for Ukrainian companies to continue production activity, maintain employment and support local economy. In 6m 2024 Ukrainian companies exported 56.2% of goods in the EU. Ukrainian companies have already become part of European supply chains supporting competitiveness of local producers.

CBAM will deteriorate state of Ukrainian economy. Such situation contradicts the strategic interests of the EU, which supports Ukraine. Maintaining trade relations with the EU will allow Ukraine to integrate further into the European economy and will support financial abilities of the state budget now.