Global steel demand will grow by 1.3% y/y in 2026 – WorldSteel

Global demand for steel in 2025 will remain at 1.75 billion tons, which is practically the same as in 2024. However, in 2026, growth of 1.3% y/y is expected, to 1.773 billion tons. These forecasts were announced by the World Steel Association (WorldSteel).

Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chairman of the WorldSteel Economic Committee and chief economist of the Spanish association UNESID, stressed that despite geopolitical risks and intensifying trade wars, the global economy is showing resilience. This optimism is based on active government investment in infrastructure and the expected easing of financial conditions for businesses and consumers.

A key factor in the forecast will be the dynamics in China, where demand for steel has been declining since 2021. In 2025, it will decrease by approximately 2% y/y due to the crisis in the housing market and financial constraints on local governments. However, in 2026, the decline will slow to 1% y/y thanks to the gradual stabilization of the construction sector. At the same time, risks for China remain high – global trade tensions and a further decline in infrastructure investment could deepen the decline.

Unlike China, developing countries will show steady growth. Demand there is expected to grow by 3.4% y/y in 2025 and 4.7% y/y in 2026. India will be the main driver. In two years, demand in the country will increase by 9%, and in 2026, it will be almost 75 million tons higher than in 2020. Other growth centers include Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

In Africa, after a long period of stagnation, a steady upturn has begun. Over the past three years, demand has grown by an average of 5.5% annually, reaching about 41 million tons by 2025. This was facilitated by macroeconomic stabilization, reduced inflation volatility, and reforms aimed at diversifying economies.

In Latin America, growth of 5.5% y/y is forecast for 2025. The decisive factor will be Argentina’s double-digit recovery after a decline of more than 30% y/y in 2024, as well as stable demand growth in Brazil, where government social housing programs are supporting the construction sector. At the same time, overall steel consumption in the region will remain lower than in 2013, reflecting ongoing deindustrialization processes.

In developed countries, demand will decline by 0.5% y/y in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. However, growth of 1.5% y/y is expected in 2026, as the EU and US markets bottom out and begin to recover. The EU and the UK are forecast to grow by 1.3% y/y in 2025 and 3.2% y/y in 2026, thanks to infrastructure and defense investments, lower inflation, and improved real incomes. In the US, demand will grow by 1.8% y/y in 2025-2026, supported by construction, private investment, and potential stimulus programs.

As GMK Center reported earlier, global steel production in 2024 decreased by 0.9% compared to 2023, to 1.839 billion tons. In December 2024, the figure was 144.5 million tons, which is 5.6% more than in December 2023 and 1.6% less than in the previous month.