Global scrap collection will reach 873 million tons by 2050 – JISF

Global steel scrap collection is projected to reach 873 million tons by 2050, which is 31 million tons less than the previous forecast. This is according to the study “Global Steel Scrap Supply and Demand Trends” by the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF), as reported by Japan Metal Daily.

Despite the downward revision, scrap generation volumes will still grow in the long term. Compared to 2020, the figure will increase by 36%, or 232 million tons, indicating a steady global upward trend.

The updated forecast points to intensifying regional variations. In developing countries, excluding China, scrap collection is expected to reach 370 million tons by 2050, which is 16 million tons more than the previous estimate. For China, the forecast has been lowered by 26 million tons to 311 million tons, and for developed economies, by 20 million tons to 193 million tons. This reflects a slowdown in mature markets against the backdrop of improved long-term prospects for steel demand in developing countries.

The key reason for the revision was changes in steel consumption forecasts for the coming decades. For developing markets, expectations have been raised to 923 million tons, an increase of 143 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for China has been lowered to 621 million tons, and for developed countries—to 257 million tons.

The JISF also notes that by 2050, the geographic center of scrap supply will gradually shift from China and developed economies toward developing countries. The majority of global scrap resources—over 85%—will be consumed by the steel industry, primarily by electric arc furnace plants.

As reported by GMK Center, global scrap consumption in 2024 fell by 1% compared to 2023, to 460.6 million tons. This occurred against the backdrop of a milder decline in total steel output—by 0.7% year-on-year, to 1.55 billion tons. This trend indicates a certain decline in the role of scrap in the steel cycle in certain countries.