Global rebar prices stabilized in late March

Indian rebar prices remained unchanged at $657/t EXW Mumbai from March 21 to 29, according to Kallanish. Since the beginning of the month, the price of the product has increased by $41/t. Thus, the potential for growth has been exhausted at the moment, although there are prerequisites for its resumption.

Indian construction companies are actively increasing their warehouse stocks of rebar, expecting its further rise in price if a 12% duty is introduced on imported rolled steel. At the moment, the authorities have not made a final decision, but market participants want to hedge their bets.

In addition, the volume of construction work is constantly increasing. Based on the results of the 2024-2025 financial year (ended March 31), the Reserve Bank of India estimates the growth of production in the construction sector at 8.6%, one of the highest figures by industry. Market growth is also indicated by data from the Indian Construction Equipment Manufacturers Association (ICEMA), according to which sales of new construction equipment in the country for April-December 2024 increased by 5%, to 98,970 units.

Chinese rebar prices from March 14 to 28 fell by $6/t, to $430/t FOT. In general, the product fell in price by $12/t in March. At the end of March, it became known that 2 large metallurgical plants in Xinjiang were planning to cut production by 10%. After this, the market speculated that more manufacturers in other regions could follow this example. However, this information did not affect the mood of rebar buyers.

In general, it can be stated that the measures of the PRC government to stimulate construction projects in the infrastructure, industrial and energy sectors do not compensate for the consequences of the systemic crisis in housing construction.

Turkish rebar quotes rose by $5/t from March 11 to 29, to $572/t FOB. This is how producers responded to the increase in scrap prices. However, the attempt to pass on the increased costs to buyers was unsuccessful.

Sales both for export and on the domestic market have virtually ceased, as demand remains limited. In these conditions, construction companies prefer more profitable import options. In particular, a metallurgical plant in Algeria offers Turkish developers rebar at $555/t FOB.

The situation is similar in Italy, where quotes rose by €5/t from March 14 to 28, to $565/t EXW, returning to the level at the beginning of the month. According to traders interviewed by Kallanish, buyers are unwilling to pay a premium.

As reported, steel demand in India in 2025 will increase by 8-9%, according to the forecast of the local rating agency Crisil. The growth will be driven by the transition to metal-intensive construction in the housing and infrastructure sectors, as well as improved demand from mechanical engineering and packaging production.