Global pellet production is forecast to grow by 10% by 2025 – forecast

Global production of iron ore pellets is likely to grow by nearly 10% – to around 600 million tonnes by 2025. SteelMint gives such a forecast.

The data show that in recent years the world production of these products has remained more or less stable – 550 million tons in 2022, 552 million tons in 2021. All major geographies, except for China and India, showed slight declines in pellet production last year. In particular, the People’s Republic of China increased the production of these products by 5% y/y in 2022 – up to 230 million tons, in India during this period it increased by 5% in annual terms – up to 83 million tons.

In the long term, China will switch to the electric arc furnace scrap steel production route. However, the country will be able to meet its decarbonisation goals by using other raw materials in steel production, as it receives high-quality iron ore from Australia, which has slightly lower emissions. Therefore, in the blast furnace segment, pellet consumption in China will increase slightly from the current 18-19% to approximately 22-23% over the next five years.

Pellet consumption in India is increasing, mainly due to environmental reasons. In addition, the country is set to ramp up steel production to meet growing infrastructure needs. According to SteelMint, pellet production in India will reach approximately 110 million tonnes by 2025.

A number of large companies, in particular, the Brazilian Samarco, also announced plans to increase pellet production. Its current production volume is 4 million tons, but it is expected to increase to 15 million tons by 2025-2026, according to the company’s plans. Vale also gave a target of around 50-55 million tonnes by 2026, from the current 36-40 million tonnes produced at its Brazil and Oman facilities.

It is also expected that Iran is likely to increase pellet production from 67 million tons in 2022 to approximately 79 million tons in 2025.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Samarco produced 20 million tons of pellets since the resumption of work in December 2020. During this period, the company shipped 200 ships with pellets to consumers in America, Africa, Europe and the Middle East.