Global coking coal exports to grow by 6% by 2026 – forecast

This will mainly be due to increased supplies from Australia

By 2026, total coking coal exports from all major global suppliers are likely to reach 369 million tonnes, up 6% from the 348 million tonnes shipped in 2023. This is stated in the latest report of the Department of Industry, Science and Resources of Australia, according to Mysteel.

The expected growth will be mainly driven by an increase in exports from Australia. Supplies from this country are expected to grow by 18.5% compared to the level of 2023 and reach 179 million tons in 2026. If these forecasts are realized, the country will account for 48.5% of all global shipments of this raw material.

According to the report, new supplies of Australian coking coal are likely to outpace mine closures and suspensions until 2026.

The largest buyers of coking coal from Australia are currently India and Japan, with shipments to countries such as Germany, Vietnam, the Netherlands and Turkey.

In particular, India is expected to continue to drive global demand for this raw material as it expands its blast furnace capacity. The country aims to achieve the goal of producing 300 million tons of steel per year by 2030. Imports of metallurgical coal to the country may increase by 19.2% by 2026 compared to 2023, to 87 million tons.

At the same time, China’s demand for seaborne coking coal may have peaked due to falling steel prices and negative margins in the steel industry. The Department has adjusted its forecast of coking coal imports for China to 54 million tons by 2026, which is 15.6% less than in 2023.

Other key global coking coal exporters are expected to increase their supply volumes only to a limited extent by 2026.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Australia has cut its coking coal export forecast for the 2024/2025 financial year (ending in June 2025) to 161 million tons amid a decline in production of this raw material. In the previous June forecast, the expected export volume for the period was 172 million tons. In 2025/2026, coking coal supplies abroad are expected to increase to 175 million tons.